UFC 246: McGregor vs Cerrone Prop Bets and Betting Predictions

UFC 246 will take place on Sunday, January 18, 2020, at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and because Conor McGregor is fighting in the main event, there are so many UFC prop bets that are popping out right now.

Most UFC events only have the usual betting lines- Moneyline and over/under rounds. But when Conor McGregor takes the octagon, it is always a betting spectacle with bets ranging from “Will the fighters touch gloves?” or “Will McGregor bring a Proper 12 Whisky during the post-fight interview?”. There are more and you will be amused. For this article though, we will focus on the prop bets related to the fight because these are the ones we can analyze using stats and previous bouts. Let’s begin:

McGregor is the Moneyline favorite in this contest at -335 as of 01/15/20 while Cerrone comes back as the underdog at +275 as of the same date. You can go to BetOnline and make a bet on either fighter using their Moneyline odds. But you can also check out the oddsmaker’s prop bets to find a bet with a better betting value

How Will the Fight End?

Per the online sportsbook BetOnline as of 01/15/20, these are the odds for methods of victory by both fighters:

I don’t think that Dana White picked Donald Cerrone randomly. McGregor is such a big investment for the UFC and for that investment to pay off, I think White is giving McGregor a fight that not only will make him look good but one he has a good chance of winning. When I say that though, I’m not saying Cerrone will be a walk in the park for him.

What I’m surprised about is how high a favorite McGregor is here. At -325 as of 1/14/20 at BetOnline, I think McGregor is overpriced given that he hasn’t fought since 2018 and that he’s lost two out of his last three UFC bouts. He is also fighting at welterweight, not his natural weight. While I think he will carry the power, I’m not sure if he can go five rounds at this weight.

Cerrone is at +250 as he is not only the much older fighter here, he is also coming off back to back losses to Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. Cowboy is 4-6 in his last 10 bouts and he isn’t getting any younger. He’s already past his prime and even when he was in his prime, he lost the biggest fights he was involved in.

However, I still think that Cowboy is a very dangerous opponent. He is more dangerous to McGregor than he was to Ferguson or Gaethje and considering he is the bigger underdog in this fight, there is good betting value on Cowboy here. McGregor’s perceived weaknesses are his conditioning and ground game. Cerrone can take advantage of both or either and pull off the upset.

When you look at Cowboy’s odds, the oddsmakers are betting on him to win on points. I think that’s fair because I agree that Cerrone has the skillset to outlast McGregor and that he has a better chance of winning if he doesn’t stay in the pocket and trade with Conor. But that isn’t Cowboy’s nature. His bravery has often failed him but I think that if he upsets McGregor, he’s going to do so via a finish. Cerrone loves to go for the home run and he’ll do so here.

Prediction: Cerrone to win inside the distance at +340.

It Could Go Either Way

But then again, I could be wrong because this fight could end either way. So if you are not sure about picking your winner, then there are also other prop bets for you. Check out these odds from Betonline as of 1/14/20:

McGregor and Cerrone have fought in a total of 75 MMA bouts and none of those ended in a draw. So I don’t think that this one’s ending in a draw either. So no, I won’t bet on this one ending in a draw, not even at +5000. I think we’ll see a winner on Sunday night. Now how it ends is what we’ll talk about next.

Conor McGregor has gone the distance only twice in his MMA career and that happened against Max Holloway in 2013 and Nate Diaz in 2016. 18 of his 21 fights have ended via knockout in his favor and his four losses have all been by way of submission. So when we talk about Conor McGregor, 23 out of his 25 bouts did not go the distance.

As for Cerrone, Cowboy has fought in a total of 50 MMA fights and 15 of those went the distance or 70% of Cerrone’s bouts have ended prematurely. Cowboy owns the UFC record for most finishes with 16 and he also has the most post-fight bonuses in the history of the promotion with 16. So although Cowboy has gone the distance 15 times, he’s always in exciting fights and loves to engage in fan-friendly bouts.

Cowboy also has a penchant for toe to toe wars and isn’t afraid to get knocked out for as long as he delivers a fight that the fans want. I think McGregor has a good chance of scoring a knockout here. Cerrone’s striking style is tailor-made for him.

But Cerrone is also a finisher and as we said, he is the UFC record-holder in that category. This bout is booked at welterweight and we know that Conor got submitted by Nate Diaz in his 170-pound debut and failed to knock out Diaz in their rematch despite dropping the Stockton standout several times. While McGregor looks jacked in pictures, Cerrone may have the advantage in size and because of that, I think he also has a shot at knocking out McGregor.

The biggest possibility for Cowboy would be to win by submission. We know Conor has been submitted in all of his MMA losses and while he has been training in BJJ, he won’t become an elite on the ground overnight. Cerrone is one of the craftiest fighters on the mat. If he can use his natural advantage in size to get this fight to the ground, a submission win is very much possible.

If you ask me, I’m looking at a McGregor win by knockout or a Cerrone win via submission here. If it’s Conor, it has to be early when he is still fresh and Cowboy hasn’t settled down yet. If this fight goes past one round, McGregor could be in danger of losing steam, because of the weight and because of ring rust. Cerrone should be dangerous after two rounds with McGregor not lasting the distance.

Prediction: No, I don’t think this fight is going the distance -600

Who Will Conor Mention?

There is also a special prop bet on a possible next opponent whose name Conor McGregor is going to mention during the post-fight interview. McGregor is such a calculated businessman. While he is focused on fighting Cerrone this weekend, we know that he (and Dana White?) already has his next move plotted. Before getting booked to a fight with Cerrone, McGregor had talked about wanting to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Khabib Nurmagomedov in rematches. McGregor’s last two losses came to both fighters and no question, he wants revenge. Then the name of Jorge Masvidal is also in the picture. Masvidal is the potential 2019 Fighter of the Year after having a spectacular year last year with stoppage wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz.

When we talk about these three potential opponents, I think the most likely name that McGregor mentions during the post-fight interview would be Khabib Nurmagomedov. I mean Floyd Mayweather Jr. is the biggest money fight here but I’m not sure if Money will ever lace up his boxing gloves again. Most likely, McGregor’s next fight after Sunday will be in the UFC and when it comes to his UFC career, the blot he wants to erase is his defeat to Khabib. Sure, Nurmagomedov doesn’t think that Conor deserves a rematch soon but Conor has been talking about that rematch many times already. So yeah, I think Khabib is the name McGregor mentions on Sunday.

Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov. I think Masvidal is a dangerous foe and he doesn’t want to take that chance, not when he is still trying to repair his reputation.