UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov will defend his belt against former interim UFC lightweight champion Tony Ferguson on April 18, 2020, at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York.
The event has yet to be named but it will be a pay per view event and is expected to be one of the biggest fights in 2020. Nurmagomedov won the vacant UFC lightweight title at UFC 223 and has successfully defended the belt twice against former champion Conor McGregor and former interim champion Dustin Poirier. Meanwhile, Ferguson won the interim belt in 2017 but was stipped after missing time due to injury. He and Khabib have been booked multiple times to fight inside the octagon but the two have never seen fight night against each other due to various reasons.
This is the fifth time that this fight has been booked by the UFC. Believe it or not, the first four proposed bouts have been canceled because of injuries to both fighters. Nurmagomedov pulled out twice from this fight, one time due to injury and another time after he was hospitalized after suffering health issues related to his weight cut. Ferguson also pulled out twice. El Cucuy suffered a lung ailment the first time and he suffered a bizarre knee injury in April 2018 after he tripped over a TV cable during a promotional event for the bout.
When the matchup was canceled for the fourth time, UFC President Dana White said that he would never book the fight again, for obvious reasons. The UFC has already spent so much on this fight only to see it called off each time. However, with Khabib and Ferguson the top two fighters in the lightweight division, this is the fight that fans want and deserve to see so White was left with no choice but to book it for the fifth time. Will the fifth time be the charm? Let’s keep our fingers crossed.
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the undisputed UFC lightweight champion and one of the most dominant wrestlers in the sport. Known as the Eagle, Nurmagomedov is undefeated in his MMA career with a record of 28-0 with 8 knockouts and 10 wins by submission. His unbeaten streak is currently the longest active unbeaten streak in MMA. Khabib is 12-0 inside the UFC octagon and is 3-0 in world title fights.
Nurmagomedov is a former two-time World Combat Sambo World champion, two-time No-Gi Expert Welterweight Champion, and European Army Hand to Hand combat champion. The 31-year old from Dagestan in Russia stands 5-10 tall with a reach of 70 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He is the first Muslim to win a UFC title and his 2018 bout with Conor McGregor at UFC 229 is the highest-earning PPV event in UFC history.
Tony Ferguson is a former interim UFC lightweight champion and the winner of The Ultimate Fighter season 13. The 35-year old from Ventura, California is currently the #1 ranked lightweight contender in the UFC and the 9th best pound for pound fighter in the promotion. Known as El Cucuy, Ferguson is on a 12 fight winning streak which is the longest in the UFC’s lightweight division. Along with Nurmagomedov, he is regarded as one of the best lightweights in the history of the UFC.
Ferguson is a former NCWA National Champion and two-time All-American. He is also a former Pure Combat Welterweight Champion and a 10-time post-fight bonus winner in the UFC. Known as El Cucuy, Ferguson stands 6-0 tall with a reach of 76 ½ inches and fights out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 25-3 with 12 knockouts and 8 wins by submission. He has not lost a fight since dropping a unanimous decision to Michael Johnson in 2012. Ferguson has won nine out of his last 12 bouts by stoppage, including six by submission. He won the interim lightweight title in 2017 by choking out Kevin Lee, only to be stripped after suffering an injury.
The last time this bout was booked, Khabib was a -200 favorite while Ferguson came back at +170. When the fight was finalized, again, for April 18, 2020, Nurmagomedov opened as a -250 favorite while Ferguson was initially pegged at +210 at SportsBetting. As of December 16, 2019, Khabib is a -188 favorite while Ferguson a +150 underdog at Betway.
Ferguson has always been the underdog since the two were booked to fight several years ago but given that El Cucuy has been on a dominant 12-fight winning streak himself, this is a closer match than the opening odds suggest and the current odds at Betway are an indication that Ferguson may be the toughest challenge that Nurmagomedov has ever faced. Khabib himself admitted that Ferguson’s ability to take damage and recover, submission skills, wrestling an unreal striking pace make him a worthy challenger.
Nurmagomedov is perhaps the most dominant grappler and wrestler in the history of the UFC. We’ve seen him rag-doll every opponent he’s faced and grind them out to a stoppage or a dominant decision. He viciously throws down his opponents to the ground before unleashing a devastating ground and pound attack that is almost unstoppable. Nurmagomedov’s weakness has been his striking but over his last few fights, we’ve seen him improve in the stand up although he is still far from being elite on his feet.
Ferguson is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC. He possesses elite striking with legit knockout power on his hands and feet. His striking is unorthodox as he throws spinning leg kicks, elbows and knees all of which come from awkward angles. It’s hard to determine where he lands because he mixes his strikes well. On the ground, he is also one of the craftiest submission artists in the business. Ferguson though is easy to hit and he has been hurt in several of his bouts. However, he has shown incredible recovery skills and can adjust mid-fight to pull off victories from the jaws of defeat.
This is an interesting fight to call. We’ve seen how dominant Khabib has been in his UFC tenure but so has been Ferguson in his last dozen bouts. El Cucuy has the advantage in height and reach so if he can keep this fight on the feet, he is going to have a big edge over Khabib as Ferguson is the much better striker. However, keeping the fight up against Khabib has been close to impossible because the Eagle is such a dominant wrestler who almost always takes the fight down every time he chooses to.
Taking Ferguson down would be interesting as well because El Cucuy can fight off his back and he can pull of submission moves even when someone is on top of him. Khabib usually gasses out his opponents with pressure but Ferguson is such a well-conditioned athlete and he also has good takedown defense as well. If Khabib can take the fight to the ground, this won’t be a mismatch because Ferguson will be ready to take advantage of the slightest mistake. I think this is a 50-50 fight to call. If Khabib can force Ferguson on his back for five rounds, he is going to win this fight. But if he chooses to test his improved striking skills, he will lose on points or end up getting knocked out by the better striker in Ferguson. Given the betting value right now, I will take my chances with Ferguson in a 50-50 fight.
EARLY BETTING PREDICTION: TONY FERGUSON
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