UFC 252: Stipe Miocic vs Daniel Cormier 3 Main Event Betting Odds and Prediction

The UFC heavyweight title will be on the line at UFC 252 on August 15, 2020, at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Current champion Stipe Miocic will defend the belt against the immediate former champion Daniel Cormier in the main event. This will be the third and final fight between these two teams. It can be recalled that Cormier knocked out Miocic in their first meeting at UFC 222 while Miocic returned the favor by stopping DC in their rematch at UFC 241.

This fight is a legacy fight for both with the title of greatest heavyweight champion of all-time at stake here. Miocic holds the longest record for most title defenses in the division while Cormier is the first heavyweight champion to defend two different belts and the second to hold two simultaneously.

The odds of this matchup have changed drastically. Cormier was a +175 underdog in their first bout and he knocked out Miocic in the first round. DC was the favorite in their rematch at -140 but Miocic stopped him in the second round. In this trilogy bout, Miocic was a slight favorite when the lines were first revealed but they have shifted to Cormier’s favor and he has settled in as a -115 favorite as of August 11, 2020.

Miocic has been the underdog in three out of his last eight bouts but he’s gone 7-1 during that period. On the other hand, Cormier has been involved in nine UFC title bouts in both the light heavyweight and heavyweight divisions. He was the underdog in five of those bouts and considering Miocic won the last bout, it’s no surprise why he’s just slightly favored to win their third and final bout.

Stipe Miocic

Stipe Miocic is the current UFC heavyweight champion. The 37-year old from Euclid, Ohio is a two-time UFC heavyweight king and is considered by some as the greatest heavyweight fighter in the history of the UFC. During his first reign as champion, he successfully defended his title three times, the most evet by any heavyweight champion in the UFC. Miocic suffered a first-round knockout loss to Daniel Cormier at UFC 226 but he regained the belt during their rematch at UFC 241.

He is a former Golden Gloves boxing champion and an NCAA Division I wrestler at Cleveland State University. Miocic also holds the UFC heavyweight record for most post-fight bonuses with a total of nine. The reigning UFC heavyweight champion is currently ranked 3rd in the UFC’s pound for pound list.

Miocic is an orthodox fighter who stands 6-4 tall with a reach of 80 inches. Miocic is 19-3 with 15 knockouts. Seven out of his last eight wins have been by knockout, including five in the first round. The only fighter he didn’t stop during that period was Francis Ngannou whom he easily outpointed at UFC 220.

The champion lands an average of 4.95 significant strikes per minute at a 52% accuracy rate. He gets hit by an average of 3.69 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 56%. Miocic also has a dangerous ground game as he averages 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes. He has a takedown completion rate of 37% and a takedown defense of 73%

Miocic is a striking machine that lands with good accuracy and plenty of power. He is also a polished wrestler with NCAA Division I experience although none of his fights have ended in a submission. He doesn’t waste any time and immediately throws strikes. What makes him hard to beat is his head movement which is an underrated part of his stand up game. He can hold his own on the ground although, in this bout, I think he will prefer to keep this on the feet because of his significant size advantage over DC.

Daniel Cormier

Daniel Cormier is the immediate former UFC heavyweight champion. The 41-year old from Lafayette, Louisiana is a two-division UFC champion. Cormier also held the UFC light-heavyweight championship and is the second fighter in the history of the UFC to hold two world titles simultaneously and the first to defend both. He is currently the #1 ranked heavyweight in the UFC and the 6th ranked pound for pound fighter in the promotion.

Cormier is a former Olympic wrestler and an NCAA Division I wrestler at Oklahoma State University. He is a former King of Cage heavyweight champion and the former Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix champion. He holds the distinction of having won a world title in every promotion he has competed for.

DC stands 5-11 tall with a reach of 72 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He has a record of 22-2 with 10 knockouts and five wins via submission. Cormier has won seven out of his last nine bouts with one draw. Five of those wins have been via stoppage including his last four victories inside the octagon. Cormier’s only loss during that period was to Miocic at UFC 241 in his last bout.

Cormier is averaging 4.95 significant strikes landed per minute at a 52% accuracy rate. DC absorbs an average of 2.75 significant strikes per minute and he owns a striking defense of 56%. The former Olympic wrestler lands an average of 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and he has a takedown accuracy of 44% with a takedown defense of 77%. Cormier averages 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes

He has established himself as one of the toughest fighters in the promotion. He is one of the best wrestlers in the division and he has ended four of his last eight bouts by rear-naked choke. He also has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and recent bouts, he also has displayed good punching power. Cormier is a fighter who is built to go the distance and he can always lean on his wrestling if all else fails.

Who Wins?

In their first bout at UFC 226, it was Miocic who was the aggressor as he tried to push Cormier against the cage while forcing clinch situations where he could rough up DC. However, DC managed to get Miocic in the center of the octagon where they circled around. Even if he had a significant reach disadvantage, Cormier was able to get near and land a sneaky punch that knocked Miocic out.

During the rematch, it was Cormier who became the aggressor as he pressed his attack with leg kicks and a big slam in the first round. On the feet, Miocic wasn’t really able to dominate DC and it was Cormier who got a little cocky as he tried to slug it out with Miocic. Stipe meanwhile, fought from a distance behind an excellent jab.

Both men landed well throughout the fight but in the fourth, Miocic was more active than Cormier who appeared like he was trying to save his energy for the 5th round. Miocic was able to land more shots and started going to the body. Cormier got hurt and Miocic finished him off to reclaim the belt.

Although he lost the rematch, DC was in control of both fights. So that’s probably the reason why DC is the favorite here. However, we’re getting a younger, bigger, and more heavy-handed Miocic at a better price. This is the heavyweight division where one punch can end the fight. Miocic has fight-ending power and Cormier is already 41 years old. I expect another good fight between the two but I like Miocic to catch Cormier with a big one that ends this trilogy.

Prediction: Stipe Miocic

Over/Under Betting Odds

Win or lose, 17 out of Stipe Miocic’s 22 bouts have ended in a stoppage. 15 of his 19 wins have come via knockout and only three out of those knockouts have happened after the 2.5 mark of the fight. His average fight time is 10:39. On the other hand, DC has 15 stoppages in 22 wins and two out of his last three wins have come inside 2.5 rounds.

These men went under 2.5 in their first bout and over 2.5 in their second encounter. I’m not expecting a long fight here. This is a fight that will determine who the GOAT of the heavyweight division is. Both men should come out firing and the one with more firepower should win this within 2.5 rounds. I’ll take the plus money here.

Prediction: Under 2.5 (+125)