The UFC returns after a three week break with a solid event in Nebraska on Saturday, August 25, 2018.
Headlining the event is a showdown between exciting lightweights Justin Gaethje and James Vick. Ranked 7th and 11th respectively in their division, both aim to move up the rankings ladder with a win on Saturday at the Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln Nebraska.
The rest of the card is just as good with the likes of Michael Johnson and Angela Hill fighting separate opponents in the undercard.
Let’s go now to business and breakdown the best fights in the event:
Justin Gaethje looks to end a two fight losing streak when he takes on James Vick in the main event of UFC Fight Night 135.
Justin Gaethje has lived up to his hype as the most exciting fighter in the UFC. All of his three fights under the promotion have been considered as Fight of the Year contenders. However, the results have been disappointing. After winning his UFC debut against Michael Johnson, Gaethje has suffered back to back losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier.
Known as The Highlight, Gaethje gained fame in the WSOF for delivering one can’t miss brawl after another. He brought this “knock you out or knock me out” attitude in the UFC but it seems that the top tier fighters are smarter than he thought. Alvarez and Poirier weathered the early storm, used patience and then took advantage of Gaethje’s flaws to knock him out. If James Vick wants to win this, he’s got to review those tapes and follow the gameplans of the Underground King and the Diamond.
Gaethje is like a one trick pony. He wants to keep the fight on his feet and he wants to stand and trade with his opponent. He relies on his punching power and durability to overwhelm his foes and uses offense over defense to win fights. If you can’t stand the heat, it’s sure defeat. But he isn’t without flaws. Gaethje’s best defense is usually covering up his face with his hands, hence leaving his body wide open. Alvarez and Poirier were able to capitalize on that and ended up knocking out the brawler. Gaethje averages 8.67 significant strikes per minute but his style has forced him to absorb 10.68 significant strikes per minute.
While Gaethje became an immediate hit with the fans, James Vick has taken the long road to get to where he is right now. Vick was a virtual unknown when he entered the house at TUF 15 but he surprised many by reaching the semifinals and earning a UFC contract. In the UFC, he’s suffered several injuries which limited his exposure and fight count. Because of that , VIck’s fought mostly prospects in his career. When he got his big break against Beneil Dariush at UFC 199, he suffered a first round knockout loss. Since then though, Vick has won four fights in a row including two by knockout.
At 6-3 and with a reach of 76 inches, James Vick is a physical presence at 155 pounds. Against Gaethje, he has a 4 inch height and 6 inches reach advantage which should be very useful, given how he usually fights. With his boxing background, Vick strikes from a distance and leads with a stiff jab. From a more reactive and defensive fighter when we first saw him, Vick now uses his size and length to take the lead and that’s why he’s produced a couple of KOs in his last four bouts.
Vick has outstruck his opponents by more than 10 strikes in 7 out of his last 10 bouts. He also averages 4.11 strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.02 significant hits per minute. However, Vick only connects on 38% of his total strikes. One glaring weakness of Vick is his takedown defense which at 56% isn’t good enough. In fact, he’s been taken down a total of 16 times in his UFC career while landing just two takedowns of his own. Good thing for him, Gaethje doesn’t know what a takedown means so there’s no worry here.
Vick has definitely put on plenty of work in recent years and there is no doubt that he is a much improved fighter now. Compared to Gaethje, he is the more balanced fighter here and he also enjoys a clear size advantage over his opponent. No question, with his size and abilities, he can duplicate the game plans that Alvarez and Poirier have employed to defeat Gaethje in the UFC.
However, I’m not sure if Vick can stay calm and composed when Gaethje applies his patented pressure and starts landing his big bombs on him. Gaethje only knows one way to fight and considering he may be in a must-win situation here, you bet he’s going to come out firing. Sure, Vick has shown knockout power before but Gaethje is one durable guy.
If this becomes a brawl, I think Gaethje is more durable than Vick. Sure, we’ve seen Gaethje getting stopped in his last two fights. But remember he fought top notch competition in Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. Vick isn’t on the same level and Gaethje is going to overwhelm him. I can remember Vick’s loss to Dariush likely repeating here. We’re picking Justin Gaethje to beat James Vick by stoppage.
Former lightweight contender Michael Johnson hopes to end a three fight losing streak on Saturday night as he faces Andre Fili in his second bout as a UFC featherweight.
Michael Johnson has fallen from grace recently. With just one win in his last six bouts, the Menace finds himself at a crossroads. But after a big win over Edson Barboza in 2015, Johnson has lost five out of his last six fights, including his last bout which was his featherweight debut against Darren Elkins last January. With perhaps his UFC career on the line in this fight, Johnson hopes to return to the winners’ circle as he faces the rising Andre Fili at UFC Fight Night 135.
Johnson has a record of 17-13 with 8 win by knockout and 2 by submission. His loss against Elkins summarized what his career has been recently. Johnson lit up Elkins with his striking in the first round but in round two, Elkins put him on the ground and submitted him rather easily. The thing with Johnson is that he has all the physical tools to be great. He has genuine punching power, genuine speed and quickness. However, when he gets himself in trouble on the ground, he breaks down mentally and loses his composure. Eight out of Johnson’s thirteen losses have been by submission so that speaks of how he’s struggled on his back.
The 5-10 Johnson has a 73 in reach and averages 4.13 significant strikes landed per minute. On the other hand, Johnson is on the receiving end of 4.03 significant strikes per minute. We spoke about his deficiencies on the ground and looking at numbers, Johnson only averages 0.61 takedowns per 15 minutes an he only attempts 0.1 submissions per 15 minutes. Despite that, Johnson has good takedown defense at 79% and that’s why he’s been able to keep fights standing up.
Andre Fili has a one inch height and one inch reach advantage over Michael Johnson. But coming from the lightweight division, Johnson is naturally the bigger man here. Fili would love to take this fight to the ground, given Johnson’s power and striking ability. But dragging the much bigger man would be difficult to do and that is going to take away what is supposed to be Fili’s biggest weapon against the Menace.
And even if Fili is able to take Johnson down, he isn’t the relentless takedown artist that Khabib or even Elkins so I don’t think that he is going to be able to mentally break Johnson down the way those two did. Having said that, I think this fight will be more on the feet than on the ground and while Fili has good boxing, Johnson is an elite striker.
Fili will try to tire Johnson and beat him on points. In doing so, he’s going to leave himself susceptible for Johnson’s striking prowess. It’s hard to bet on someone who’s lost five of six. But remember that Johnson faced a murderer’s row of foes during that stretch. Fili hasn’t fought anyone in Johnson’s caliber. On paper, Fili is Johnson’s easiest opponent in years. He’ll prove that inside the octagon. We’re picking Michael Johnson to beat Andre Fili on points.
A pair of female strawweights looking to establish their name in the division will square off at UFC Fight Night 35 as Angela “Overkill” Hill takes on Cortney “cast Iron” Casey.
These are two fighters who are no strangers to going the distance but each has a different experience with the scorecards. Hill has gotten the judges’ nod in four out of her last six fights while Casey has dropped three decisions in her last four bouts including two close split decision losses.
Angela Hill is one her second tour of duty with the UFC. Overkill was first seen as a competitor in the The Ultimate Fighter: A Winner Will Be Crowned series. After a win over Emily Keegan in the TUF Finale, she earned a UFC contract but would go on to lose her next two bouts to Tecia Torres and current champion Rose Namajunas. Hill was released by the UFC and she went on to fight at Invicta FC where she would win four in a row, get three Performance of the Night bonuses in three fights and win the Invicta FC strawweight title after two bouts. Hill then earned another chance at the UFC but since her return, she has alternated losses and wins. She is looking to win two fights in a row for the first time since 2016.
Hill hasn’t reached the kind of success in the UFC that she achieved in Invicta. Her chances of becoming a contender were immediately quashed when Jessica Andrade beat her in her comeback fight. Hill’s main weakness is in her inability to balance her power and balance. Hill has an in-your-face style which often gets her in trouble. When she stands and plants to throw her punches, her much quicker opponents pour on the counter strikes easily on her. Recently, she’s incorporated more movement in her game to avoid getting hit more often but that has caused her to tire in her recent fights.
Overkill has a record of 8-4 with 3 knockouts. The 31 year old former World Kickboxing Champion stands 5-3 and has a reach of 64 inches. She lands an average of 5.42 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy while absorbing 5.07 significant strikes per minute from her opponents. Hill isn’t too fond about taking fights to the ground as she only averages 0.32 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
Cortney Casey has gone the distance in her last four fights but she failed to get the decision in three of them. She’s lost her last two bouts and both by split decision. Casey is an interesting prospect as she is one of the larger women in the strawweight division and she is a well rounded fighter as well. Her first two UFC bouts were brawls and she lost both by unanimous decision. Despite that, she remains a dangerous opponent because of her size in a small weight class.
Although she is a very poor wrestler, Casey can take charge in grappling exchanges. She also has a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu so none of her three submission victories were a fluke. Save for her armbar submission loss to Pearl Gonzalez in 2013, she hasn’t been stopped inside the cage. Casey has well-rounded skills but isn’t great in any. Her wrestling weakness has prevented her from becoming an elite fighter in her weight class.
Casey has a mediocre record of 7-6 with 3 knockouts and 3 submissions. All of her six losses have come via decision so as we said earlier, she just can’t buy the judges’ nod in her fights. Cast Iron averages 4.39 significant strikes landed per minute while she absorbs 4.10 significant strikes per minute. She’s good on her feet but her take down defense is below par at just 25%. Good thing for her, Overkill isn’t a fan of going to the ground so this fight is likely going to be a stand-up battle for three rounds.
This wasn’t Cortney Casey’s fight, originally. She is just stepping in for the injured Alexa Grasso and because of that, she brings an element of surprise in this fight as she isn’t the opponent that Hill was preparing for. This element of surprise has produced plenty of upsets in the past and it could do so this time around.
Casey doesn’t seem to have the package to dominate this fight but we’ve seen Angela Hill having cardio issues in the past and I think that’s going to be key here. Casey has proven that she can fight for 15 minutes as she’s gone the full route in her last four outings. Sure, she didn’t get the nod in three of those fights, but two of those could have gone either way. That said, the longer this fight goes, Casey is going to have the advantage as if she doesn’t already have it.
Her size and and length alone may be enough to ground Hill’s striking and drag this fight to the later rounds where she can put her opponent down and do enough damage on the ground to win the fight. However, Casey is also coming off a fight where she got too comfortable on her back and she got submitted by the Karate Hottie. But she’s facing Angela Hill here so that probably won’t be an issue. I like her size and of course, the plus money. We’re picking Cortney Casey to beat Angela Hill.
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