The UFC heads to the Amalie Arena in Florida on Sunday, October 12, 2019, for UFC Fight Night 161 or UFC on ESPN +19. In the main event, former UFC women’s strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk takes on former Invicta FC atomweight champion Michelle Waterson in a five rounder that could have championship implications. Jedrzejczyk heads to the fight as a -390 MMA betting favorite (as of 10/10/19) to beat Waterson.
Considered one of the greatest female combat fighters of all-time, Joanna Jedrzejczyk is a former multiple-time Muay Thai and Kickboxing world champion who took the UFC women’s strawweight division by storm. Jedrzejczyk held the UFC women’s strawweight title for three years from 2015 to 2017 before losing the belt to Rose Namajunas at UFC 217.
The Polish fighter is 32 years old and she stands 5-6 with a reach of 65 ½ inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. She has an MMA record of 15-3 with four knockouts and one win by submissions. Jedrzejczyk is coming off a loss to Valentina Shevchenko in a flyweight bout last December 2018. Joana has lost three out of her last four bouts, including two to Rose Namajunas.
Jedrzejczyk is a highly effective striker who has terrific accuracy and elite boxing skills. Because she is a former kickboxer, Joanna utilizes her legs better than any fighter in the business. She is highly skilled and has great technique. Jedrzejczyk is like a fighting machine when she is on her feet and she knows how to find ways to win.
Michelle Waterson was the #1 ranked female atomweight fighter early in this decade. Waterson is a former Invicta FC atomweight champion who also fought for Ring of Fire, KOTC and Strikeforce before moving to the UFC in 2016 to campaign in the strawweight division.
Known as the Karate Hottie, the 33-year old Waterson stands 5-3 with a reach of 62 inches. She fights out of the orthodox stance and is a freestyle karate black belt who also owns a purple belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. The Karate Hottie has a record of 17-6 with three knockouts and nine wins by submission. She is on a three-fight winning streak with wins over Cortney Casey, Felice Herrig, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz.
Waterson is a very athletic fighter who isn’t just a karate expert but also has a good background in kickboxing. Leg kicks are a big part of her game and she is very quick on her feet. Waterson also has a good takedown game and because of her BJJ background, she has very good submission skills. If there’s a disadvantage for Waterson in this fight, it’s that she is giving up three inches in height and three inches in reach to one of the best female combat sports artists we have ever seen.
After suffering two losses to Rose Namajunas and her recent defeat to Valentina Shevchenko, this is a must-win fight for Joanna Jedrzejczyk. No, her UFC career isn’t on the line here, but her status as one of the elites is certainly at stake in this fight. Joanna returns to her old weight class after her failed bid at flyweight. And with the women’s strawweight division having a new champion in Chinese sensation Zhang Weili, a big win over the Karate Hottie could put her in line for a possible title shot.
Jedrzejczyk is a six-time Muay Thai world champion and a multiple-time kickboxing world champion as well. She is known for her precise striking and pin-point counter attacks. She is a very experienced fighter who knows how to find ways to win. She has been effective using her sprawl and brawl fighting style and mixes her head and body punches well. Her front kicks are just as deadly as her elbows and knees.
As for Waterson, she has never fought for a title in the UFC and a victory over the former strawweight queen could also lead the Karate Hottie closer to her first-ever title shot in the UFC. She is no longer a spring chicken at 33 years old and you bet she wants that title shot as badly as Joanna does. That said, I expect Waterson to leave it all inside the octagon on fight night.
While Waterson may not have the kind of experience and expertise that Joanna has, she is well-coached and she also has a very high fight IQ. Her freestyle karate base has made her one of the most exciting female strikers in the UFC. Moreover, she has a very good submission game and that’s the part that makes her dangerous in this bout. It’s interesting to note though that none of her nine submission wins have come under the UFC banner.
There is no question that Michelle Waterson is an elite striker and that she has a very good submission game. However, she is fighting one of the best, not just in the UFC, but of all-time.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk isn’t unbeatable, but she is an all-time great. Although you could say that Joanna has lost three of her last four bouts, she did so against UFC champions in Rose Namajunas and Valentina Shevchenko. Waterson meanwhile, has never fought for a title and has a submission loss to Namajunas.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk is one of the greatest strikers we’ve ever seen in the UFC. On her feet, her technical skills are second to none. Her footwork and mastery of distance make her tough to fight. We are going to see an exciting striking battle if Waterson decides to fight on her feet. However, I won’t be surprised if she takes the fight to the ground to eliminate Joanna’s striking advantage. I think Joanna’s too good on her feet here and with an 80% takedown defense, she is going to keep this fight standing up. It won’t be a walk in the park but the better striker and more experienced fighter win this.
Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk
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