Derrick Lewis faces Aleksei Oleinik in the main event of the UFC’s August 8, 2020 event which will take place at its Apex Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Lewis is currently the 4th ranked heavyweight in the UFC and is coming off back to back wins over Ilir Latifi and Blagoy Ivanov. Those wins came after the Black Beast dropped back to back contests to Junior Dos Santos and Daniel Cormier in a title challenge. On the other hand, Oleinik is ranked 15th in the UFC’s heavyweight division and the 42-year old submission specialist is coming off a big win over former UFC heavyweight champion Fabricio Werdum at UFC 249 last May.
These two fighters have contrasting styles with Lewis being a one-punch knockout artist and Oleinik one of the best submission grapplers in the heavyweight division. Let’s take a look at how these two fighters match-up for this weekend’s big event:
Derrick Lewis is back in the Top 4 of the UFC’s heavyweight rankings. The Black Beast is a veteran who has competed inside the cage since 2010 and he’s fought for organizations like Bellator and Legacy FC, earning the title of Heavyweight Champion for the latter. Lewis is tied with former champions Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos for the record for most knockouts in the heavyweight division with 10.
Lewis stands 6-3 tall and has an 83-inch reach while fighting out of the orthodox stance. The Black Beast has a record of 23-7 with 18 knockouts and one win via submission. He is 11-3 in his last 14 UFC bouts with his losses coming at the hands of Mark Hunt and former champions Daniel Cormier and Junior Dos Santos. Lewis heads to this contest with back to back wins over Blagoy Ivanov and Ilir Latifi.
Lewis lands an average of 2.53 significant strikes per minute at a 49% accuracy. He gets hit with an average of 2.14 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 44%. Lewis averages 0.48 takedowns per 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 24% and a takedown defense of 53%.
Aleksei Oleinik is the oldest heavyweight in the UFC’s roster. The 42-year old began fighting in 1997 and he has fought for organizations like M-1 Global, Pro FC, and IAFC. He has also competed under Bellator, KSW, and YAMMA Pit Fighting. This submission expert holds the distinction of being the only fighter to win a fight via Ezekiel Choke and he has accomplished the feast twice. Oleinik is the UFC’s 10th ranked heavyweight as of August 1, 2020.
The Boa Constrictor stands 6-2 tall and has a reach of 81 inches while fighting out of the orthodox stance. He has a professional record of 59-13 with 8 wins by knockout and a staggering 46 by submission. Oleinik is 4-2 in his last six UFC bouts and he heads to this contest with back to back victories over Maurice Greene and Fabricio Werdum. Seven out of his eight UFC wins have been by stoppage including six via submission.
Oleinik connects on an average of 3.72 significant strikes per minute with a 50% striking accuracy. He absorbs 3.30 significant strikes per minute with a 47% striking defense. On the ground, Oleinik is a prolific takedown artist with an average of 2.41 per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 46%. His takedown defense is at 35% and he averages 2.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
This is the third consecutive bout where Lewis has been favored to win. Prior to this three-fight period, Lewis was the underdog in five consecutive bouts. He has six wins in his last eight bouts, including the previous two times he was the betting favorite. This is the shortest odds Lewis has been since he was a -385 in 2015 against Ruan Potts.
As for Oleinik, this is the second straight bout where he is the underdog. He was a +170 underdog when he defeated Fabricio Werdum in his last bout. Oleinik was favored in two consecutive bouts prior to his bout with Werdum. At +225 as of Bet365 on August 2, 2020, this is the longest odds he’s been pegged at since 2017.
Derrick Lewis has won seven out of his last 10 bouts and is coming off a February win over Ilir Latifi. Lewis is a powerful striker who has won 78% of his fights via knockout but three out of his last four wins have been by decision including the last one against Latifi. The Black Beast has a boxing background and has heavy hands. He’s always looking to throw that fight changing punch that usually ends his bouts. He doesn’t have much of a ground game and he has a history of tiring late in his fights. Given what we’ve seen from him, he will live and die with his striking and he will be looking to end things early to avoid complications. Lately, we’ve seen improved takedown defense from Lewis and he looked quicker in his last bout.
Oleinik outstruck Werdum in his last bout but he was taken down thrice and it was the first time in four years that he went the distance. The Boa Constrictor hasn’t won three consecutive bouts since 2014 so this is a big fight for him. He has a deep background in Combat Sambo and submission wrestling which easily make him one of the best submission artists in the history of the heavyweight division. Oleinik uses his striking to close the distance and he owns decent pop in his overhand punches as well. However, his bread and butter are finding his opponent’s neck and going for the choke. When on the ground, he is capable of finishing his opponent in any position.
There’s value in Oleinik here because if he can take Lewis down, then there is a very good chance that he ends the fight in a submission. Lewis isn’t a wrestler and his notoriety to tire after the first round could hound him here. However, we have seen better takedown defense from the Black Beast in his recent bouts and if he is able to keep this fight on the feet, I don’t think that Oleinik is skilled enough to beat him in a striking battle. Oleinik has a history of getting knocked out on his feet if he decides to trade against a better striker. That could be the case here as Derrick Lewis isn’t the kind of opponent that you want to get punched by.
Prediction: Derrick Lewis. But if you think that -205 is too expensive for a 35-year old who’s 2-2 in his last four bouts, wait for the other betting markets to emerge and bet on this fight not going the distance. It’s got to be a KO by Lewis or submission by Oleinik.
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