UFC Fight Night: Dustin Poirier vs Dan Hooker Betting Odds and Prediction

Top-ranked UFC lightweights Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker square off in the main event of the UFC’s event on June 27, 2020, at its Apex Facility in Las Vegas, Nevada.

These two were supposed to headline the UFC’s Sand Diego event last May 16, 2020, but that was one of the events that were canceled due to the coronavirus pandemic. The bout was rumored to be headed to “Fight Island” but after Hooker was able to travel to the United States following New Zealand’s success in fighting the pandemic, the bout was booked to headline the UFC’s last event in Las Vegas before heading to Abu Dhabi for the start of the Fight Island series.

Dustin Poirier

Dustin Poirier is the former interim UFC lightweight champion. The 31-year old from Lafayette in Louisiana. He fought for Bang FC and also competed in the WEC and joined the UFC as one of the holdovers of the latter. Poirier is currently the 3rd ranked lightweight in the UFC and the 11th ranked pound for pound fighter in the UFC.

The Diamond has earned a total of 10 post-fight bonuses including six Fight of the Night awards. His 2012 bout against the Korean Zombie and 2018 showdown with Justin Gaethje won Fight of the Year honors. He won nine out of 11 bouts with one draw from 2015 to April 2019 and defeated Max Holloway at UFC 236 to win the interim UFC lightweight title but lost the belt in his next bout against Khabib Nurmagomedov.

The loss to Nurmagomedov snapped a four-fight winning streak and Poirier hopes to avoid suffering back to back losses for the first time in his career in this bout. He has earned the reputation as one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. The Diamond has some dangerous hooks and possesses one-punch knockout power. He has slick submission skills with his BJJ black belt and is a tricky opponent because he is left-handed.

Poirier is has a record of 25 wins and 6 losses. 12 of his victories have come via knockout while seven have been via submissions. He has two losses each by decision, knockout, and submission and his average fight time is 9 minutes and 41 seconds. The Diamond stands 5-9 tall and has a reach of 72 inches while fighting out of the southpaw stance.

Poirier is a volume striker who lands and an average of 5.51 significant strikes per minute at a 49% accuracy rate. He absorbs an average of 3.97 significant strikes per minute and has a striking defense of 56%. On the ground, this BJJ black belt completes an average of 1.55 takedowns per 15 minutes with an accuracy of 37%. The Diamond owns a 61% takedown defense and he averages 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

Dan Hooker

Dan Hooker is the former King of the Ring Middleweight kickboxing champion, WKBF X-Rules Welterweight champion, Supremacy Fighting Championships lightweight champion, and Australian Fighting Championship lightweight champion. He joined the UFC in 2014 and is currently the UFC’s 5th ranked lightweight contender.

The 30-year old from Auckland in New Zealand has won four post-fight bonuses in the UFC including twice in his last four bouts. He started his UFC career with a 3-3 record but has been on a roll with seven wins in his last eight bouts, including three in a row over James Vick, Al Iaquinta, and Paul Felder in his last three assignments. Hooker knocked out current #1 welterweight Gilbert Burns at UFC 226.

The Hangman has become one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC and he loves to finish his fights. He is a volume striker who usually has the length advantage over his opponents. He is a former kickboxing champion so it’s no secret where he prefers to fight. Despite the absence of a takedown game, he is good in the clinch and has a decent submission game.

Hooker owns a record of 20-8 with 10 wins by knockout and seven by submission. Five of his losses have been by decision and he’s been knocked out once and submitted twice. The Hangman is six feet tall with a reach of 75 inches and is an orthodox fighter. His average fight time is nine minutes and 53 seconds.

Hooker lands an average of 4.76 significant strikes per minute and has a 45% striking accuracy. He gets hit by an average of 4.67 significant strikes per minute and he owns a striking defense of 55%. On the ground, the Hangman is just averaging 0.43 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 28% accuracy. He also averages only 0.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes and has a takedown defense of 78%.

Who Will Win?

Hooker is a tough customer and he has length. He has an excellent striking arsenal which includes hard leg kicks. If Poirier takes him down, Hooker can also hold his own there so if this goes as I’m imagining it to be, this could be a long, hard, and bloody fight. Poirier is also coming off a demoralizing defeat to Khabib at UFC 242 so you also have to wonder where his mindset for this fight is. Sure, he wants to get the belt back but it’s also not easy to bounce back from such a one-sided defeat. Those said, I won’t blame you if you take the plus money on Dan Hooker.

However, when you compare both fighters, it’s Poirier who has fought better competition and it’s the Diamond who has more experience fighting inside the octagon. He’s also the guy who has cleaner boxing and better punching power. If this fight stays on the feet, he will have more advantages than Hooker. On the ground should be the same story. Poirier is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and Hooker won’t take him down seven times as Nurmagomedov did.

Hooker does have slick submission moves and he has seven submission wins to his name including three via guillotine choke. But based on what we’ve seen, he prefers to fight in the stand up where his length has always helped him dominate fights. He won’t dominate Poirier here because, despite his size advantage, the Diamond is a slippery striker who can get in and out without taking much damage.

I like the plus money on Dan Hooker and I won’t blame you if you go for it. But I will go with the safe bet here in Dustin Poirier because I think he is the better overall fighter between the two and he has the punching power to move the fight in his favor very quickly. I think Dan Hooker is going to go far in this sport and this promotion but in this fight, I will go with Poirier’s punching power and his BJJ chops.

Early Betting Prediction: Dustin Poirier (-220)