he Golden State Warriors look to become the first team since Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls to make six Finals appearances during an 8-year span. The Dubs will accomplish that feat if they beat the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night.
Golden State defeated Dallas 109-100 in Game 3 to take a 3-0 series lead in the 2022 Western Conference Finals. Steph Curry led the Warriors with 31 points while Andrew Wiggins added 27 to lead the Warriors. Golden State unleashed another big third quarter and withstood another massive performance by Luka Doncic.
Dallas also got big games from Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson but their woeful three-point shooting cost them another game in the series. The Mavericks missed their first seven three-point attempts and finished a dismal 13-45 or 28.9%. Reggie Bullock and Max Strus combined to shoot 0-12 from deep in Game 3. In a similar paltry three-point outing in Game 1,
No team in the history of the NBA playoffs has come back from a 0-3 deficit to win the series, putting Dallas in a tough spot right now. But the Mavs have no choice but to take it one game at a time, beginning with Game 4.
The Warriors are on the cusp of another appearance in the NBA Finals and a chance to match a record set by Michael Jordan’s Bulls. But while the Warriors have been dominant in the Steve Kerr era with 20 wins in 22 playoff series, they have not been as good in completing the sweep. The Dubs are just 6-4 when leading a series 3-0 and one of those losses came against the Denver Nuggets in the opening round of the playoffs.
Winning the third quarter has been the key to this series. Golden State has outscored Dallas 89-58 in the third quarter of the series. They have held the Mavs to 36.8% shooting in the third quarter while hitting 53.0% of their own shots. In Game 3, the Dubs utilized a 30-21 third quarter run to put the game away for good.
The Mavericks wasted another massive performance by Luka Doncic who has scored 42 and 40 points in the last two games of the series. Doncic is one 40-point game away from joining Hakeem Olajuwon and Michael Jordan as the only players in NBA history to score three consecutive 40-point games in the postseason. But more than that, Doncic will want his team to stay alive in the playoffs.
Dallas is up against impressive odds. No team in the history of the NBA playoffs has come back from a 0-3 deficit to win a series. Out of 146 teams that were down 0-3 in an NBA playoff series, only three have forced a Game 7 and none since the Portland Trail Blazers in 2013. The Mavs will have to take it one game at a time. But they need to make their three-pointers in Game 4 to have a chance to win.
The Warriors have won four out of their last six games played against the Mavericks. However, Dallas has won three out of its last four home games played against Golden State.
The Warriors have the Mavs on the edge right now. But remember how Dallas clawed back against Phoenix. This team may look down right now but you can never underestimate this group. Luka Doncic is having a phenomenal postseason and the Mavs have gotten the support from Spencer Dinwiddie and Jalen Brunson. However, the Mavs are a team that lives and dies with the three-point shot.
Unfortunately for them, the Warriors are the better offensive team than them and have more firepower from three-point range. Golden State is a team that Dallas cannot match weapon for weapon when it comes to three-point shooting. The Dubs have an offense that can explode at any given moment in the game. The Warriors also have the playoff experience to finish the job. Sure, the Dubs may not have a good record in sweeping a series. But this one takes them back to the Finals and when the stakes are high, the big-time players like Curry, Thompson, and Green will deliver. It has been an excellent run for the Mavs. But it ends here.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Mavericks. Golden State is also 3-1 ATS in their last four meetings in Dallas.
The Warriors are:
The Mavericks are:
The Warriors have been red hot in the Western Conference Finals. They are shooting 53.1% from the field and scoring an average of 115.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are scoring just 105.3 points per game in the playoffs and have been held to 100 or fewer points twice in three games.
Dallas shot just 13-45 from three-point distance or 28.9% in Game 3. The Mavs are better than that and should shoot better in Game 4. However, the Warriors were also just 11-32 or 34.4% from deep. Obviously, they too are much better than that from three-point distance. Like the Mavs, I expect the Dubs to shoot better from the outside. Having said those, I don’t think that Dallas will have many advantages in Game 4. Golden State is such a veteran team that can win on the road.
Prediction: Warriors +1
The total has gone over in 13 out of the last 19 head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The over is also 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Dallas.
Golden State Warriors over/under trends:
Dallas Mavericks over/under trends:
These teams have combined to score an average of 217.0 points per game in this series and 216.2 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. However, the total has gone under twice in the three games played in the series and the Mavs have averaged only 101.7 points per game in this series.
Golden State only has the 7th best defense in the playoffs but in the Western Conference Finals, their defense has been outstanding. The Dubs have locked down the Mavs’ three-point shooting in two of the three games in this series. With a trip to the Finals on the line, look for the Warriors to play good defense and shut down the Dallas outside sniping. Look for another terrific defensive effort from the Warriors.
Prediction: Under 215.5
Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment.
