Blake Daniels, November 1, 2022

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The Golden State Warriors play their third straight game away from home when they visit the Miami Heat at the FTX Arena on Tuesday night.

Golden State is 0-2 SU in their current five-game road trip with the Warriors losing in Charlotte and Detroit. The Dubs are 3-4 SU to start the season and they are second behind the 5-1 Phoenix Suns in the Pacific Division team standings.

Miami is worse at 2-5 SU to start the campaign. The Heat have struggled at home and on the road and they head to this home contest having dropped their last two games, both on the road. The Heat are next to last in the Southeast Division team standings with only the 1-6 SU Orlando Magic worse than them.

These teams played last Thursday in Golden State with the Warriors beating the Heat 123-110.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors head to Miami after losing to the Detroit Pistons in their previous game. Detroit only had one win before beating the Dubs but Golden State looked weary in the second of a five-game road trip.

Golden State shot just 42% from the floor and 31% from three ball. When you have the second-worst scoring defense and rely on your offense to win games, that isn’t going to do the job for you.

Steph Curry scored 32 points with 6 assists but he was a miserable 10-24 from the field. Jordan Poole also had a big game with 30 points but outside the two, the Dubs didn’t have much on offense with Andrew Wiggins the next-highest scorer at just 10 points scored.

Miami Heat

The Heat are even off to a worse start at 2-5 SU. Miami made the East Finals last season, losing to the Celtics in a close series. This season, the Heat have looked decent on defense as they are 12th in the league in points allowed. Miami is however struggling to keep up on offense as they are among the bottom 5 scoring teams in the NBA.

Miami dropped its last two games, both on the road, including a 13-point defeat to the Dubs in Oakland. The Heat were outrebounded 50-31 by the Warriors and Golden State made 18 three-pointers in last Thursday’s game. In their last game, the Heat lost 119-113 to the Sacramento Kings as 4-point favorites.

Tyler Herro is coming off his best game of the season with 34 points while shooting 5 three-pointers. Bam Adebayo added 26 points while veteran point guard Kyle Lowrie had 15 for Miami. Jimmy Butler only had 13 in the loss to the Kings.

Warriors vs Heat SU Betting

The Warriors are 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played against the Heat. Miami is 3-1 SU in their last four home games against Golden State.

Golden State Warriors SU trends:

• The Warriors are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Warriors are 0-3 U in their three road games played this season.
• The Warriors are 3-3 SU in 6 games as betting favorites this year.
• The Warriors are 7-1 SU in their last 8 November games played.

Miami Heat SU trends:

• The Heat are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Heat are 1-3 SU in their last 4 games played at home.
• The Heat are 6-3 SU in their last 9 November games.
• The Heat are 6-0 SU in their last 6 Tuesday games.

This isn’t the start that many expected from both teams. The Dubs are the defending NBA champions while the Heat were Eastern Conference finalists last year.

The Warriors’ offense has looked good as ever to start the year despite Klay Thompson scoring just 12.3 points per game so far. The Dubs are also shooting just 34.3% from deep which isn’t too shabby but not the kind of accuracy you’d expect from this team.

Steph Curry is scoring 31.0 points per game and shooting over 39% from three-point distance. Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins are providing him with plenty of scoring support at over 17 points per game apiece. The Dubs are also third overall in assists with Draymond Green leading the way with 5.7 dimes per contest.

However, defense has hurt Golden State’s campaign so far as they have surrendered 120+ points five times in their first seven games. The Warriors are conceding 122.0 points per game second most in the league behind only the Brooklyn Nets’ 122.2.

Meanwhile, the Heat have retained the toughness that took them to the Final Four last season. Miami is 12th in scoring defense 110.6 points per game allowed. However, the Heat have struggled on offense as they are in the Bottom 5 in scoring at only 108.0 points per game this season.

But Miami’s low-scoring offense is by design as they are 25th in pace and like to play a deliberate half-court game. That style could go against the Warriors who like to play a fast game and like to outscore their opponents. This game will be played at Golden State’s pace. But given that Miami plays better defense and Golden State can’t stop anybody, I like the Heat to win at home.

Prediction: Miami Heat

Warriors vs Heat ATS Betting

The Warriors are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 games played against the Heat The Dubs are also 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games against Miami.

Golden State Warriors ATS trends:

• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Warriors are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
• The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Warriors are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Miami Heat ATS trends:

• Heat are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games.
• Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.
• Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 2 days’ rest.
• Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
• Heat are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Heat are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Heat are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• Heat are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Warriors beat the Heat by double digits last week but that game was played in Oakland where Golden State is 3-1 SU this season. This one’s going to be played in Miami and the Dubs are winless on the road so far this year and their last two road losses were in Charlotte and Detroit.

This is Golden State’s third consecutive road game and the defending champions will be away from home until November 4th when they visit the Pelicans. No doubt Golden State will be trying to win their first game in this five-game road trip but it won’t be easy.

Miami has lost two in a row but both were on the road. The Heat are also just 1-3 SU at home this season. The Heat are in the bottom 5 in the league in scoring but should have a better offensive performance on Tuesday against the second-worst scoring defense in the NBA in Golden State. The Heat are also 12th in defense and 25th in pace so they are expected to slow down this ball game.

Miami hasn’t been a very good home team so far this season nor have the Dubs been a good road team. I think this one can go either way and you have to like Golden State’s ability to put up points in a hurry. However, they are playing on the road where they have been held to below their season scoring average. In a pick’em game like this one, I like to pick the team that can make big stops down the stretch. In this matchup, that team is Miami and they are also playing at home.

Prediction: Heat +1

Warriors vs Heat Over/Under Betting

The total has gone over in each of the last five games played between these two teams. The over is also 4-0 in their last four games played in Miami.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• The over is 6-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 overall.
• The over is 6-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Warriors’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 4-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 5-0 in the Warriors’ last 5 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 6-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-0 in the Warriors’ last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 4 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 3-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 4 games versus a team with a winning % below .400.

Miami Heat over/under trends:

• The over is 9-3 in the Heat’s last 12 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.
• The over is 43-21 in the Heat’s last 64 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The under is 5-2 in the Heat’s last 7 Tuesday games.
• The under is 5-1 in the Heat’s last 6 home games versus a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

These teams have combined to score an average of 227.3 points per game in their last 10 head-to-head meetings and 226.0 points per game in their most recent three encounters, including 233 the last time they played just last Thursday.

Golden State is averaging 118.7 points per game this season. They have topped the 120-point scoring mark six times in seven games played this season. The Warriors are ranked second in pace and have the league’s second-worst scoring defense at 122.0 points per game allowed. The Dubs have hit the 226 total in each of their first seven games played this season.

The Heat have a much better defense this season but Miami is still giving up 110.0 points per game this season. But Miami gave up 123 to the Dubs last Thursday and 119 against the Kings in their last game so this is a team that can go wrong in defense too.

Miami plays at a slower pace but the Warriors’ ability to score will force the Heat to keep up with their opponents. Meanwhile, the Dubs’ defense has been non-existent so far to start the year. They rely on their explosive offense to lead them to victory. This game won’t be any different than last week’s meeting.

Prediction: Over 226