Blake Daniels, March 20, 2023

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The Golden State Warriors look to end their 11-game road losing streak on Monday when they visit the Houston Rockets at the Toyota Center.

Golden State has been Jekyll and Hyde when playing at home and on the road this season. The Dubs are 29-7 SU at home this season but are just 7-29 SU on the road. Playing on the road has been at its worst as of late as the Dubs have not won on the road since late January.

The Dubs are trying to lock up a Top 6 spot in the Western Conference team standings so they can head to the playoffs outright. That is on the ropes right now as they are one-half game behind the Dallas Mavericks for the 6th spot.

The Rockets are 18-53 SU on the year and have been eliminated from playoff contention already. Houston has nothing to lose now and they are merely going through the motions, hoping that this terrible campaign will end. The Rockets have seen improvement from their young stars but right now, they look far from being a playoff team.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are coming off a loss to the team that calls them rivals – the Memphis Grizzlies. In that game, Steph Curry missed 15 of 20 shots and the Dubs shot just 1-8 from deep during the 4th quarter. Worse, the Grizzlies dropped a 21-3 run to put the game away and deal Golden State its 11th consecutive road loss.

Golden State is 23-20 SU against the Western Conference but is just 7-29 SU on the road this season. The Warriors are 4-6 SU in their last 10 games played and they have lost their last three games played.

Houston Rockets

Already out of the playoffs, the Rockets have rattled off three straight wins before losing to the Pelicans in the second of a two-game set played in New Orleans. Houston is 18-523 SU on the season and they have the second-worst record in the entire NBA behind the Detroit Pistons.

The Rockets are a terrible 12-25 SU in 37 home games played this season. Houston is just 11-36 SU when playing against their Western Conference rivals. They are however 5-5 SU in their last 10 games played and are 3-1 SU in their last four games played overall.

Warriors vs Rockets SU Prediction

The Warriors are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games played against the Rockets. Golden State is 4-0 SU in their last four games played in Houston.

Golden State Warriors SU trends:

• The Warriors are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games played.
• The Warriors are 0-11 SU in their last 11 games played on the road.
• The Warriors are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games played in the Southwest Division.
• The Warriors are 4-17 SU in their last 21 road games against the Western Conference.
• The Warriors are 23-20 SU in their last 43 games played overall against the Western Conference.

Houston Rockets SU trends:

• The Rockets are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games played.
• The Rockets are 12-25 SU in their last 37 games played at home.
• The Rockets are 11-36 SU in their last 47 games played against the Western Conference.
• The Rockets are 8-15 SU in their last 23 home games against the Western Conference.

Golden State’s struggles on the road continue. With Curry missing 10 out of 15 shots and scoring only 16 points, the Warriors fell on the road to the Memphis Grizzlies 133-119. That defeat was Golden State’s 11th consecutive road defeat. They have not won on the road since late January.

Since the All-Star break, the Warriors are 0-7 SU on the road. On Monday, they will face a Houston Rockets team whom they have beaten thrice already this year by an average margin of 13.7 points per game while scoring 121 points per game.

Curry averaged 33.7 points per game on 53.5% shooting in his first seven games back from injury. But with Golden State playing for the third time in four days and in the second of a back-to-back schedule, Curry struggled. And he cannot afford to do so again on Monday night.

After a 117-107 loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday, the Rockets hit the court again on Monday in the second of a back-to-back schedule. Having relied on a balanced scoring attack during an 8-game stretch where they won five games, the Rockets got a combined 65 points from Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr. in their last game but outside the two only Tari Eason scored in double digits with 10 points.

Green scored 40 while Porter added 25 on 7-15 shooting but the rest of the team shot just 13-42 from the field and combined for 42 points. The Rockets are 18-53 SU this season and are out of the playoff hunt and are playing with nothing to lose, making them a very dangerous opponent.

Golden State’s losing streak has gone too long. I think the Dubs are too good to lose more games away from home. Houston isn’t one of the best defensive teams in the league and is the worst in defending the three-point shot. I think Golden State takes that monkey off their back.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors +470

Warriors vs Rockets ATS Prediction

The Warriors are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games played against the Rockets. Golden State is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games played in Houston.

Golden State Warriors ATS trends:

• The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
• The Warriors are 15-36-1 ATS in their last 52 road games.
• The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The Warriors are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
• The Warriors are 46-22-4 ATS in their last 72 Monday games.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
• The Warriors are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
• The Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.

Houston Rockets ATS trends:

• The Rockets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Rockets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Rockets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• The Rockets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Rockets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Rockets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Rockets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The Rockets are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight-up loss.
• The Rockets are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.
• The Rockets are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 0 days’ rest.
• The Rockets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day.
• The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning straight-up record.

You can look at the Warriors playing on the road two ways. One, they have struggled so badly that it’s not wise to bet on them right now. On the other hand, you have to think too that this team is too good to lose these many consecutive games on the road. Having said both, I think Golden State is primed for a road win soon and I believe the Rockets are the perfect victims.

Houston ranks last in the NBA in three-point defense and that should be a major problem against the Dubs who love to shoot the three-ball. Steph Curry is coming off a rare off-night and I expect him to bounce back on Monday night. The Warriors are also trying to hold on to the 6th spot in the Western Conference so I expect a better effort from them.

Prediction: Golden State Warriors -10

Warriors vs Rockets Over/Under Prediction

The under is 4-1 in the last five games played between these two teams. The under is 13-6-1 in the last 20 meetings between the Warriors and Rockets.

Golden State Warriors over/under trends:

• The over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 overall.
• The over is 41-17-3 in the Warriors’ last 61 road games.
• The over is 5-0-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 Monday games
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game
• The over is 5-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game
• The over is 5-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 games following a straight-up loss of more than 10 points.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 games when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 games following a straight-up loss.
• The over is 4-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 6 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The over is 4-1-2 in the Warriors’ last 7 road games versus a team with a losing home record.
• The over is 7-2 in the Warriors’ last 9 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
• The over is 3-1-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400.
• The under is 4-1 in the Warriors’ last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.

Houston Rockets over/under trends:

• The under is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last 4 overall.
• The under is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last 4 home games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last 4 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last 4 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 4-0 in the Rockets’ last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 7-3 in the Rockets’ last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The under is 22-8-1 in the Rockets’ last 31 vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Over is 9-2-1 in the Rockets’ last 12 Monday games.
• The over is 4-1 in the Rockets’ last 5 games following an ATS loss.
• The over is 7-2 in the Rockets’ last 9 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day.
• The over is 21-10 in the Rockets’ last 31 games playing on 0 days rest.
• The over is 5-2 in the Rockets’ last 7 games following a straight-up loss.

Golden State is an OVER team this season and given their power, that is no surprise. Houston isn’t that much of a scoring team as compared to Golden State but with the Dubs surrendering at least 127 points in five out of their last 7 games played, I think this one will be a high-scoring affair where the Warrior will gladly trade three-pointers for two-point baskets by the Rockets.

Prediction: Over 238