It’s a battle between the top two teams in the NBA on Tuesday night at the desert when the Golden State Warriors visit the Phoenix Suns at the Phoenix Suns Arena.
The Suns are the hottest team in the league right now with 16 straight wins and they can tie the longest win streak in franchise history with a win here. It won’t be easy though as although Phoenix has been on a roll, they are still just the second-best team in the NBA, at least according to the team standings.
Golden State is 18-2 to start the season and the Dubs head to Phoenix with a seven-game winning streak of their own. The Warriors have surprised many people except themselves as they have ascended to the top of the team standings even if Klay Thompson and James Wiseman have yet to play one game this season. Steph Curry is the early runaway choice for league MVP honors while Jordan Poole is having a career season.
The Warriors won their league-best 18th game of the season with a 105-90 rout of the L.A. Clippers at Staples Center. MVP favorite Steph Curry scored 33 points while recording a season-high six steals along with five rebounds and six assists. Otto Porter Jr. had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds while Jordan Poole added 17 points for the Dubs.
Golden State ranks 2nd in the league in scoring at 114.0 points per game and they are 5th in rebounding at 47.1 boards grabbed per contest. The Dubs are the no. 1 passing team in the league at 29.3 assists per game and they have the NBA’s top scoring defense at 100.4 points per game allowed.
The Suns passed their biggest test to date when they dominated the NBA title favorites Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center before settling for a 113-107 win. Devin Booker led the Suns with 30 points while Chris Paul added 22 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists. Javale McGee had a double-double off the bench with 10 points and 10 rebounds.
Phoenix ranks 3rd in the NBA in scoring at 112.6 points per game this season. The Suns are 15th in rebounding at 45.8 boards pulled down per contest and 4th in passing at 26.3 assists per game. They also have the league’s 8th best scoring defense at 105.0 points per game allowed.
Golden State is 7-0 SU in their last seven games played. The Warriors are 7-1 SU in their last eight games played on the road, and 6-0 SU in their last six games against the Western Conference. Phoenix is 16-0 SU in their last 16 games played. The Suns are 8-0 SU in their last eight games played at home.
Head to head, the Suns have won five out of their last eight meetings against the Warriors.
This is a game between the top two teams in the NBA. The Suns are on a 16-game winning streak while the Dubs have won seven in a row. Phoenix is the 3rd highest-scoring team in the NBA while the Warriors are the second-best scoring team in the league this season.
But while these two teams are separated by just 1.4 points per game when it comes to putting up points on the scoreboard, the Warriors are the much better defensive team this season. The Suns rank 8th in scoring defense but the gap between them and the top-ranked Warriors is nearly five points, showing how good the Dubs have been on that side of the floor as well.
Opposing teams are barely hitting the 100-point mark against the Warriors and they are shooting just 41.9% from the field against the Golden State defense. The Dubs will be without Andre Iguodala and Damion Lee but for as long as Steph Curry is 100%, the Warriors are the best team in the NBA.
Golden State has been favored nine times in their previous 10 games played. This is one of the rare times this season that we’re getting plus money on them. At 18-2, with wins over the Nets, Bulls, Sixers, Clippers, Lakers (2x) among other teams, the Dubs are the real deal.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
The Dubs are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games played. Golden State is 6-2 ATS in eight road games played this season, 5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Pacific Division, 4-0 ATS in their last four games as betting underdogs, 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after a straight-up win of more than 10 points, 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against an opponent with a winning home record, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as road underdogs, and 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after an ATS win.
The Suns are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games played. Phoenix is just 5-5 ATS in 10 home games played this season, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS win, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites, 17-7 ATS in their last 24 home games against an opponent with a winning road record, 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Tuesday games, 50-24-1 ATS in their last 75 games against opponents with a winning record.
There’s no question why the Suns are favored here. Although the Warriors have the best record in the league, Phoenix has the longer winning streak heading to this contest. But we know too well that the longer a winning streak gets, the closer it gets to getting snapped. That’s just how the law of averages works.
But I’m not basing my pick on the law of averages. Rather, I’m looking at how good the Warriors have played defensively and how they can win a game even if they do it coming from behind. The Dubs are a team you can’t sleep on. They play excellent defense so that when their shots aren’t falling, they will always have a chance to win the game. If the shots start falling through, it’s going to be a blowout, regardless of who the opponent is.
I’m getting plus points with the no. 2 scoring team and no. 1 scoring defense in the NBA right now. That’s a luxury.
Prediction: Golden State Warriors +2.5
The total has gone under in five out of the last six games played by the Warriors. The under is 10-2 in their last dozen games when their opponent allows more than 100 points in their previous game, 6-1 in their last seven games after a straight-up win of more than 10 points, 4-1 in their last five games as road underdogs, 6-2 in their last eight games after an SU win, and 23-8 in their last 31 road games.
The total has gone over in five out of the last six games by the Suns. The over is 5-0 in their last five games as betting favorites, 5-1 in their last six games after scoring 100 or more points in their previous game, and 5-1 in their last six games after an SU win.
However, the under is 5-1-1 in the Suns’ last seven games when playing on 2-days rest, 4-1 in their last five games after an ATS win, 4-1-1 in their last six Tuesday games, 4-1 in their last five games against an opponent with a winning road record, and 5-2 in their last seven games against an opponent with a winning percentage higher than .600.
Head to head, the total has gone under in eight out of the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The under is also 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in Phoenix.
Make no mistake, these are two offensively gifted teams who are no. 2 and no. 3 in the league in scoring. With the way Steph Curry has been playing, points can come in a hurry for the Warriors.
However, the Dubs’ defense has been so good this season that they have been an excellent UNDER team at 14-6 in 20 games played this season. That defense has even been more stifling lately as Golden State has not allowed its last nine opponents to score more than 106 points while holding five of those opponents below 100 points.
The Phoenix defense isn’t as fearsome but they are also in the Top 10 in scoring defense. The Suns have hit the OVER consistently as of late but that’s because they have scored at least 112 points in each of their last six games played. With Golden State’s defense limiting them here, this game should fall short of the total.
Prediction: Under 220
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