Blake Daniels, September 29, 2022

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The Washington Commanders head to Cowboys Stadium to take on the Dallas Cowboys in a Sunday showdown.

Washington is 1-2 SU on the season and they are at the bottom of the NFC East Division team standings. The Commanders have lost their last two games and are coming off a 24-8 loss to the soaring Philadelphia Eagles.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys were given up for dead when Dak Prescott got hurt in Week 1. But not only have they bounced back from that opening week defeat, Dallas has won back-to-back games heading to this Sunday contest. The Cowboys are 2nd in the NFC East division standings.

The Cowboys have beaten the Commanders seven times in their last 10 head-to-head meetings, including two out of the last three. Dallas blew out Washington 56-14 at the same venue in their most recent meeting last December 26, 2021.

Washington Commanders

After a solid win over the Jaguars in Week 1, the Washington defense has struggled, allowing an average of 30.0 points per game in their last two games played. Their offensive line also failed to protect Carson Wentz, allowing six sacks in the first half and seven for the entire game.

Wentz threw for 211 yards and a late touchdown but that did not matter as the damage had been done. Wentz also threw for 337 yards two weeks ago against Detroit but they still lost that game. He however has played well against Dallas, historically. Wentz has 14 TDs and just 4 INTs in 8 career starts against Dallas. His career passing rating against the Cowboys is a solid 95.7.

Antonio Gibson leads the Commanders with 124 rushing yads on 40 carries with 2 rush TDs. Meanwhile, Terry McLaurin leads the team with 235 receiving yards on 12 catches with one TD grab.

Dallas Cowboys

Many gave up on the Cowboys after losing Dak Prescott to injury in Week 1. However, the Cowboys have rallied behind back-up Cooper Rush and they have won back-to-back games. In two starts, Rush’s numbers haven’t been spectacular: 514 total yards in two games with just under 11 yards per completion.

But Rush does not need to be Dak Prescott for Dallas to win. In the last two weeks, he has done just enough to help the Cowboys win games. During Monday’s 23-17 win over the New York Giants, Rush threw for 215 yards and a fourth quarter TD to CeeDee Lamb to give the Cowboys the lead for good. He did not throw any interception in that game.

Ezekiel Elliott leads Dallas with 178 rushing yards on 40 carries with one rush touchdown. Noah Brown has caught 15 passes for 213 yards with 1 TD catch to lead the Cowboys in receiving. Trends indicate that WR Michael Gallup could make his return on Sunday. Gallup, who is dealing with a knee injury, was a full participant during Wednesday’s practice.

Who Wins?

Washington is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games played against Dallas. The Commanders are 4-6 SU in their last 10 road games against the Cowboys.

Washington Commanders SU trends:

• 2-6 SU in their last 8 games played.
• 1-3 SU in their last 4 games played on the road.
• 1-6 SU in their last 7 games against the NFC.
• 1-5 SU in their last 6 games played against the NFC East.

Dallas Cowboys SU trends:

• 14-6 SU in their last 20 games played.
• 6-4 SU in their last 10 games played at home.
• 4-1 SU in their last five October games played.
• 4-9 SU in their last 13 games played in Week 4.

Washington opened the 2022 season with a 28-22 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3-point spread favorites. But since then, they have dropped back to back games to the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. Last week, the Washington defense allowed the Eagles to amass 340 passing yards with Jalen Hurts throwing for 3 TD passes. The Commanders are allowing 27.3 points per game this season.

Carson Wentz was sacked during last Sunday’s 24-8 defeat against the Eagles. Wentz finished the game with 211 passing yards with zero touchdowns, two fumbles, and one fumble lost. With Wentz struggling, Washington produced only 240 yards of offense. Terry McLaurin was the lone bright spot for Washington with six catches for 102 receiving yards.

Dallas’ looked horrible in opening week with the offense mustering just 3 points in a loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Worse, the Cowboys lost QB Dak Prescott to injury for at least a month. But instead of unraveling, Dallas defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 20-17 as 7-point home underdogs. On Monday night, they beat the New York Giants 23-16 as one-point road underdogs.

Cooper Rush hasn’t been great in his two starts for Dallas. However, he has been solid with 450 passing yards on 40-62 passing with two TD passes and zero interceptions in their two upset victories. Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have been a huge help for the Cowboys as they combined for 47 total yards against the Bengals amd 180 total yards against the Giants.

Elliott and Pollard should have their way on the ground against a Washington defense that is ranked 21st in rushing defense at 128.7 rushing yards per game allowed. Dallas will score just enough points to win this game and cover the betting spread.

Prediction: Dallas Cowboys

Commanders vs Cowboys ATS Prediction

The Commanders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games played against the Cowboys. Washington is also 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games played between these two teams.

The Commanders are:

• 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 4.
• 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
• 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home.
• 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NFC East.
• 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in October.

The Cowboys are:

• Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in October.
• Cowboys are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
• Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Cowboys are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 vs. NFC.
• Cowboys are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. NFC East.
• Cowboys are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games overall.
• Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf.
• Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
• Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.

Without Prescott, Dallas knows that their defense will be the key to victory. The Commanders have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and they will be facing a Cowboys team that has an impressive defensive line and linebacking unit. Wentz has been sacked too many times already this season and the Cowboys defense are just going to add to that total.

The Commanders’ defense still has plenty of talent but without Chase Young, they have been very inconsistent. Dallas has been able to run the football with success. They should be able to continue to do that here. Cooper Rush’s confidence should be at an all-time high right now. Give me the Cowboys to cover the spread here.

Prediction: Cowboys -3.5

Commanders vs Cowboys Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone over in 10 out of the last 13 games played between the Commanders and Cowboys. The over is also 7-0 in their last seven meetings in Dallas.

Washington Commanders over/under trends:

• Under is 10-5 in the Commanders’ last 15 games played overall.
• Under is 6-1 in the Commanders’ last 7 games following a ATS loss.
• Under is 13-3 in the Commanders’ last 16 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 13-3 in the Commanders’ last 16 games in October.
• Under is 16-5 in the Commanders’ last 21 versus a team with a winning record.
• Under is 11-4 in the Commanders’ last 15 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 19-7 in the Commanders’ last 26 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Under is 10-4 in the Commanders’ last 14 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
• Under is 14-6 in the Commanders’ last 20 games following a straight up loss.
• Over is 4-2 in the Commanders’ last 6 games played on the road.
• Over is 4-1 in the Commanders’ last 5 games in Week 4.
• Over is 4-1 in the Commanders’ last 5 games on fieldturf.

Dallas Cowboys over/under trends:

• Under is 3-0-1 in the Cowboys’ last 4 games overall.
• Under is 4-0 in the Cowboys’ last 4 home games.
• Under is 6-0 in the Cowboys’ last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Cowboys’ last 4 games following a ATS win.
• Under is 3-0-1 in the Cowboys’ last 4 games following a straight up win.
• Under is 4-0-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games on fieldturf.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last 5 games in Week 4.
• Under is 8-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 11 against NFC.
• Over is 21-6 in the Cowboys’ last 27 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• Under is 8-3 in the Cowboys’ last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
• Over is 7-3-1 in the Cowboys’ last 11 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
• Over is 13-6 in the Cowboys’ last 19 games in October.
• Over is 15-7-1 in the Cowboys’ last 23 versus the NFC East Division.

There’s no question that Cooper Rush is playing well right now but with a limited receiving corps, it’s most likely that the Cowboys will run the game with Elliott and Pollard. That running game is going to eat up plenty of time on the clock and should make this a low-scoring contest.

Meanwhile, the Washington offense hasn’t gotten going not with Carson Wenz getting sacks every now and then. With Lawrence and Parsons putting the pressure on Wentz all night long, the Commanders will find it hard to score as they will be forced to run the football.

Prediction: Under 41.5