When we are researching our sports betting picks, there are a lot of things that can give us a better indication of what to expect.
For example, we know what each team’s record is on the season, overall, and on the road. We know how each team has been playing lately and how they’ve fared against each other in recent meetings. We even know things like how teams tend to perform as a favorite, as an underdog, when playing for the second straight day, or when having had the last few days off.
However, one thing many of us struggle to analyze properly in advance of a game is injuries and the effect they will have on a team’s performance. In this article, we’ll take a look at the various ways that sports injuries affect games and how you should approach them when making your wagers.
There are several different scenarios that we as bettors have to be prepared for when it comes to injuries in sports.
The most obvious one is when a star player is injured badly enough that he or she has to miss their team’s next game. But there will also be times when an injury leaves a player’s availability for the next game in doubt, times when we know the athlete is going to play through the injury, and times when the athlete is returning to action after missing an extended stretch due to injury. All of these situations present various challenges when we’re handicapping a game and trying to determine what or who to wager on.
Here are three main ways in which sports injuries can affect the performances of players, and subsequently, their teams.
The main reason injuries are such an issue in sports is because of how the athletes are suddenly handcuffed with physical limitations that they’re not used to. A sprained ankle means the player can’t run as fast as they want or pivot as quickly. A broken finger could affect their accuracy on throws or shots. Or they simply might not be able to play at all.
Not having a player available at their usual skill level and ability is obviously going to hurt a team’s chances of winning their next game. How much it hurts the team depends on how good the player is, how good the backups are, and several other factors which we’ll touch on later.
Whether the athlete is playing through an injury or returning from one, there are also possible psychological effects that we need to consider.
If a player is dealing with a hamstring or groin injury, they may be afraid to push their body to the limit because of the potential for re-aggravating the condition or making it worse. If a quarterback is just coming back from a serious knee injury he suffered from a low hit he received while releasing a pass, he might be a bit “gun-shy” in the pocket and throw the ball quicker than usual, worried about getting hit again. And any player who has recently suffered a concussion will understandably want to shy away from as much physical contact as they can until they feel more comfortable.
Giancarlo Stanton is a textbook example of how long it can take a star athlete to completely recover psychologically following a devastating injury. After losing five teeth and suffering multiple fractures from getting hit in the face by a fastball in 2014, the outfielder struggled through the next two years before bashing 59 homers in 2017 and winning National League MVP. Having your face shattered has to be one of the most traumatic things that can happen to you, and it’s totally understandable how Stanton may not have been that comfortable at the plate (even with a mask covering half his face) for the next couple of seasons.
Injured players aren’t the only ones in a game who are affected by their ailments. Seeing other players go down, especially superstars, can have a significant impact on an entire team as well.
Sometimes an injury can be a rallying point. The loss of a star player to injury forces the rest of his or her teammates to elevate their games to make up for that player’s absence, and they’re often up to the challenge. Don’t forget, all of the players in the pros were once superstars in lower leagues, and the opportunity to play a more important role is something that most athletes relish and crave. They’ll also be more focused than usual, knowing that they’ll all need to be just a bit better in order to overcome the loss of one of their leaders.
However, injuries can also be crippling to a team’s psyche, especially if they’re already going through some tough times or have already had to handle injuries to other players. If a football team is missing a couple of its top receivers and then sees its quarterback suffer a major injury, the psychological effect can be devastating. At some point, the team may feel it’s simply missing too many of its critical players to have any chance of success going forward. That’s definitely true in the playoffs when the fatigue of playing so many high-intensity games against tough opponents eventually takes its toll.
At this point, it’s important to acknowledge that not all injuries are created equal. They can vary greatly when it comes to which parts of the body are affected, how severe they are, and how much they affect a player’s performance.
A common thing that coaches and trainers say to wounded athletes is, “Are you hurt or are you injured?” That may sound like asking the same thing twice, but being hurt and being injured are drastically different. When you’re hurt, you’re usually just feeling some short-term pain that isn’t going to have a long effect going forward, like when you stub your toe, have cramps or get winded. Being injured, however, means that the pain is going to last for a while and that attempting to play through it may only make things worse.
The most serious injuries in sports have long been considered to be muscle tears and bone breaks, ailments that are particularly common in contact sports. Broken bones require an extended period of inactivity and rest in order for them to heal, and muscle tears (such as ACLs and MCLs in knees or rotator cuffs in shoulders) also involve a long and complicated rehabilitation process.
However, recent research about head injuries and their effect on mental health have determined that concussions are in fact the injuries that should be treated the most seriously in sports. Continuing to play in a game after suffering a concussion can lead to debilitating results later in life, and anyone who suffers a concussion is much more prone to suffer another one, especially if they return to action too quickly.
A big challenge that concussions present is that they aren’t as easily diagnosed as a broken bone or muscle injury, leaving a decision for the athlete, trainer, and coaching staff about whether the player should stay in the game or not. Professional leagues have come a long way in how seriously they treat potential concussions (many of them have a strict protocol for teams to follow when a concussion is suspected), but we as fans and sports bettors still can’t be 100% sure about whether an athlete is going to continue to play and how their performance may be affected.
Sometimes even serious injuries can be overcome if the athlete is willing to endure the pain and risk the potential for future damage. There are many legendary stories about players who put their futures in jeopardy by continuing to play through an injury, such as Bob Baun scoring the overtime winning goal of a 1964 Stanley Cup final game while playing on a broken leg. On the flip side, former Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III might have ruined his career by playing through a serious knee injury in the 2013 playoffs and tearing multiple ligaments. In today’s era of multi-million-dollar contracts and salary caps, athletes and teams alike usually err on the side of caution when it comes to injuries.
When we hear that a team is missing one of its top players for its next game, it’s only natural to want to bet against that team. But it’s actually pretty common for teams not to skip a beat in their following matches, and not just because every other player on the squad elevates their game (as we discussed earlier).
Certain positions on the court, field, or ice are simply more replaceable than others, even if the injured player is a very recognizable name who puts up big numbers. One classic example of this is in football, where running backs get more credit than they probably should for the yards they gain and touchdowns they score. The truth is that a backup running back should be able to put up numbers that are close to the starter since they get to benefit from the same holes opened up by the offensive line.
And just like teams may have an easier time overcoming the loss of a big name than we may think, it can sometimes work the opposite way for less-heralded names. A great defender and rebounder in basketball doesn’t get the same recognition and accolades as the team’s leading scorer, but their absence may allow the other team’s top players to light up the scoreboard. And most fans would be hard-pressed to name starters on a team’s offensive line, but nothing can disrupt a team’s offense faster than when a center goes down to injury and his replacement isn’t able to give his quarterback enough time to throw the ball.
That’s why it’s important not to immediately overreact whenever you hear about an injury to a big-name athlete, and also not to underreact when you hear about an injury to a role player. Look at a team’s depth chart to see if there’s a big drop-off in talent between the starter and his replacement, and look back over recent history to see how the team has done without that player in the lineup. That’ll give you a much better indication of how the latest injury will affect the team in its next game.
The way that injuries affect our wagers depends on when the injuries take place. If a player is injured before a game (usually in the previous game or in practice), the betting public and oddsmakers will be aware of it in advance. But when injuries happen during a game, there isn’t much time for anyone to prepare or react.
Injuries that occur before a game begins are actually something that we can capitalize on as sports bettors, but not in the way you might expect.
As we touched on earlier, the gut instinct for most bettors is to immediately bet against a team once they hear that a top player is missing. However, unless you’re lightning-quick and place the bet before the oddsmakers get a chance to move the odds, you’re not really fooling anybody. The absence of a superstar player due to injury is going to be factored into the betting line. And since oddsmakers know that most people are going to bet against the team missing the star player, they often inflate the line on the other team.
Because of that, you’ll usually find a lot of betting value wagering on teams who are dealing with injuries to top players, not against them. In fact, it’s generally a good idea to wait as close to game time as you can before placing your wager, since most people betting at the last minute are public bettors who will be taking the other side and driving up the line that much more.
Twenty years ago, there wasn’t much you could do when a team you bet on saw one of its top players get injured during a game. It was just the luck of the draw, and you had to hope that things would simply even out over time with teams you bet against suffering injuries as well.
Live betting has changed all of that. Since most betting sites offer you the ability to place wagers at any time during a game, you can quickly place a bet on the other team when a star on the team you bet on goes down to injury. Ideally, the team you bet on is already beating the spread or winning the game, giving you a chance to hedge your bet and still make a profit.
The key word in that previous paragraph is “quickly.” Even if oddsmakers aren’t closely monitoring the game in which the injury took place, they’re going to hear about the injury fairly quickly thanks to Twitter and other news information services. The live betting lines are going to be adjusted dramatically to reflect the latest injury, so unless you beat the oddsmakers to the punch, you won’t be getting great value.
If you aren’t able to quickly pounce on the live betting lines before they change, it’s probably best to wait and see how serious the injury actually is. It’s not uncommon for players to look like they might be badly injured, only to have them come back into the game a few minutes later. By paying attention to the game and projecting whether the star will return to action, you might be able to take advantage of those adjusted live betting odds before they move back to where they were before the injury took place.
If there’s one takeaway from this article for sports bettors, it’s to make sure you don’t immediately overreact or underreact to injury news.
Injuries affect athletes and teams differently. Sometimes the star is able to play through the injury, and sometimes they struggle when they return. Sometimes teams have no chance without a player in their lineup, and sometimes they are galvanized and rejuvenated by the challenge of trying to win without their top star.
Unless you’re quick to the draw and place a bet before the oddsmakers can change the line, you’re not usually going to benefit from blindly betting against a team who just lost a player due to injury. Instead, take the time to find out the severity of the injury and look at the team’s depth to see how good his or her replacement is. You might just find that an injury to a star athlete comes with the silver lining of great betting value opening up on their team.
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