What To Look Out For? The 2018 FIFA World Cup Updated Odds and Prediction

With barely days before the start of the 2018 FIFA World Cup, everything is pretty much set. We already know the groupings, now we also know the complete line-ups.

June 4^th was the deadline set for the 32 participating teams to submit their respective 23-man World Cup roster. Now that we know which 736 soccer players will be headed to Russia this week, we also have a better picture of how things could unfold at the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Here are the updated and complete 32 team odds at Bovada as of June 10, 2018:

Overall, the odds haven’t changed much as compared to their opening figures. The teams at the top are still the teams to beat but since the final rosters were revealed, there have been several movements worth noting, especially on top of the oddsboard.

Let’s take a look at the teams which made noticeable movements versus the previous edition of the 2018 FIFA World Cup odds:

The New Favorites: Brazil at +450

While the Germans lost to Austria in a recent friendly, Brazil took over as the betting favorites to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup. And after two sensational goals in their own friendly fixture against Croatia, they have every right to be the top pick to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup.

Brazil has won the World Cup ( five times ) more than any other nation and they always seem to have one of the best line-ups in every World Cup. This year is no different as the likes of Neymar, Roberto Firmino, Gabriel Jesus, Casimero, Willian and Philippe Coutinho have developed into superstars since the last edition of the World Cup. With these names leading their side, Brazil has the potential to beat every team in Russia.

During the 2014 World Cup, Brazil got humiliated in front of their countrymen as Germany defeated them 1-7 in the semifinals. But with the rise of the Brazilian stars noted above, the Canarinho should be ready to take their revenge.

Slipping To Second: Germany at +475

Germany had been the favorite since the 2018 FIFA World Cup entered the discussion tables. But after a recent loss to Austria in a friendly fixture, the Germans have slipped to second place behind the Brazilians at +475.

Demoting Germany to second spot may seem like an overreaction but given that the team hasn’t won a match in 2018. Team manager Joachim Low left out several notable players in a final line-up which he referred to as a ‘photo finish’. Snubbed were the likes of Bernd Leno, Jonathan Tah, and Nils Pietersen. But it was the exclusion of Manchester City standout Leroy Sane that made the headlines.

Sane won the 2017-18 PFA Young Player of the Year after helping Manchester City win the Premiere League title. Sane scored 10 goals and had 15 assists in 28 appearances for the City in 2017-18. According to Low, it was a ‘tight race’ between Sane and Julian Brandt, who ultimately got the nod.

Brazil and Germany are expected to top their respective groups and are touted to win three knockout games each to set up a meeting at the 2018 FIFA World Cup final. Now wouldn’t that be some final given what happened four years ago?

Countries Moving Up

Aside from the changes in the top two spots in the oddsmakers list, there were notable risers in the field since the line-ups were named, namely Uruguay and Croatia.

From a +3300, Uruguay has risen to a +2500 after their final 23 was announced. The Uruguayans have one of the best backlines in the tournament and also have an excellent core of talented midfielders. After getting a favorable draw last November, Uruguay has a fairly easy road to the knockout stage and should be in serious consideration for World Cup futures.

Croatia has steadily risen in the ranks and are now at +3300 from +4000. They have one of the most talented sides and easily one of the top midfields in the tournament. With the likes of Modrić, Rakitić, Perišić, and Mandžukić leading the way, Croatia is poised to make a deep run in the tournament.

But while Uruguay has a considerably easy group, Croatia will have a harder time making the round of 16 with Argentina, Nigeria and Iceland in Group D. Backing up Croatia in the futures market surely has risk involved but given it’s talented squad, they definitely have good value.

The Top Fallers

Home team Russia opened at +3300 but now have fallen below both Uruguay and Croatia at +5000 according to the latest odds. The Russians are considered to have an easy way out of the group stages but because they are likely going to face either Portugal or Spain in the Round of 16, they have since tumbled in the oddsboard. Russia should be huge underdogs against both countries and barring any miracle, that’s probably where it ends for Putin’s squad.

Injuries have also seen the likes of Poland and France fall from the oddsmakers grace. Poland’s star center Kamil Glik will miss the 2018 FIFA World Cup after suffering a shoulder injury in training. With Poland already having a thin line-up, the absence of their defensive star has caused their odds to slip from +6600 to +8000.

France’s Laurent Koscielny suffered an Achilles injury during the second leg of Arsenal’s Europa League fixture versus Atletico Madrid. Without his experience ( 51 caps ) and the stability that he provides at the back, the oddsmakers have shied away from what appears to be a young French team. From a +550, France is now fourth behind Brazil, Germany, and Spain at +650.

The Groups

• Group A: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay.
• Group B: Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Iran.
• Group C: France, Australia, Peru, Denmark.
• Group D: Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria.
• Group E: Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia.
• Group F: Germany, Mexico, Sweden, South Korea.
• Group H: Poland, Senegal, Columbia, Japan.

The Tournament:

The 32 teams are composed of 31 qualifiers with the 32nd team being the host nation. This year, 20 teams led by defending champions Germany, will be making back to back World Cup appearances. Meanwhile, Panama and Iceland will be making their first World Cup appearance ever. A total of 64 matches will be played in 12 different venues located in 11 different cities. The opening games will be on June 14 while the Final will be on July 15 at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow, Russia.

Teams will play their respective group mates in a round robin format. The top two teams after the group stages will advance to the 16 teams knockout stage. After three knockout stages, the remaining two teams will play for the holy grail of football.

Prediction

Barring any surprises, Germany and Brazil are expected to top their respective groups. Should this happen, they can possibly meet in the finals. But if one of them finishes runner-up in their group, there is a possibility that they will square off in the second round of the knockout stages.

Neymar missed the 2014 semifinal game against Germany with a vertebra injury and that probably took a lot out of the Brazilians. With Brazil parading a healthy Neymar and the fact that their side has lost just four international matches during the four-year window and just once in the last two years, there is no reason not to pick Brazil.

Defending champions Germany is still a formidable squad but the rise of Brazilian goal scorers like Gabriel Jesus and Philippe Coutinho has certainly given the advantage to Brazil. We’re picking Brazil to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup.