Blake Daniels, July 14, 2022

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The Chicago White Sox and Minnesota Twins open a four-game set on Thursday night at Target Field.

Despite disappointments and injuries, the White Sox are very much alive in the playoff race. At 43-45 on the season, Chicago is 3rd in the AL Central but is just five games behind the Twins. If they can do well in this series, they should be able to get closer to the top of the division. The White Sox are also just 3.5 games off the wild card pace in the AL so the White Sox should head to the All-Star break with their heads held up.

Meanwhile, the Twins are 49-41 on the season and are 4.5 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central. The Twins have led throughout the first half of the season and they are looking to keep a good lead before heading to the break. The Twins are just 5-5 in their last 10 games played. Minnesota has beaten Chicago six times in their last seven head-to-head meetings.

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are 4-7 in their last 11 games played, all against the AL Central. Chicago defeated Cleveland 2-1 on Wednesday night behind a solid start from Lucas Giolito. The White Sox bullpen also did a good job as they pitched 2.2 scoreless innings to preserve the win.

Johnny Cueto will open on top of the hill for the White Sox. The 36-year-old right-hander is 3-4 in 10 starts this season with 8 quality starts. Cueto has an ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.15 He has conceded 60 hits in 68 innings and is averaging 7 strikeouts per nine innings. Cueto faced Minnesota earlier this season and allowed one run on five hits in six innings while getting a no-decision.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins will look to retain their lead in the AL Central by taking care of business against the White Sox. Minnesota has held the lead for most of the first half of the season but they are just 5-5 in their last 10 games played. With the All-Star break coming up, the Twins are looking good so far.

Right-hander Sonny Gray will start on top of the hill for the Twins. The 32-year-old right-hander is 4-2 with an ERA of 3.03 and a WHIP of 1.06 this season. Gray has conceded 20 earned runs on 47 hits in 59.1 innings pitched with 54 strikeouts and 16 walks. He’s struggled in two starts this month with a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 7.45.

White Sox vs Twins Betting Prediction

The White Sox are 1-7 in their last eight meetings against the Twins. Chicago is also 0-5 in their last five games played in Minnesota.

The White Sox are:

• 4-2 in their last six games played.
• 5-1 in their last six games played on the road.
• 4-0 in their last 4 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• 6-1 in their last 7 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 5-2 in their last 7 against a team with a winning record.
• 7-3 in their last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 9-4 in their last 13 road games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 19-9 in their last 28 road games against a right-handed starter.
• 4-11 in their last 15 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 5-17 in their last 22 Thursday games.
• 1-5 in their last 6 Game 1s of a series.
• 1-7 in their last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• 36-42 in their last 78 games against the American League.
• 19-20 in their last 39 road games against the American League.
• 11-19 in their last 30 road games as underdogs against the American League.
• 15-21 in their last 36 games as betting underdogs.
• 28-33 in their last 61 games against right-handed starters from the American League.

The Twins are:

• 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games on grass.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 1-6 in their last 7 Thursday games.
• 4-1 in their last 5 home games opposite a team with a losing record.
• 4-0 in their last 4 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 4-0 in their last 4 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• 45-35 in their last 80 games against the American League.
• 23-15 in their last 38 home games against the American League.
• 34-31 in their last 65 games against right-handed starters.
• 34-20 in their last 54 games as betting favorites.
• 30-16 in their last 46 games as betting favorites against the American League.

We’ll be seeing two veteran right-handers who have the ability to carry their teams to the 6th inning or deeper. I don’t see one of them having a significant edge over the other on Thursday night however, the Twins have found more success with Gray than the White Sox have with Cueto this year.

In his five starts since returning from injury, Sonny Gray has posted an ERA of 3.68 which isn’t great but is decent. That should not be too much of an issue against a White Sox team that is ranked only 17th overall in total runs scored this season. Meanwhile, Cueto has a good ERA of 2.91 and a WHIP of 1.15 but Chicago is just 3-6 in Cueto’s last nine starts and they are only 14-17 against the AL Central division this season.

Offensively, Minnesota is 8th in the majors in total home runs with 113 while the White Sox are only 25th with a total of 72 bombs this season. The Twins are also 8-2 in Gray’s last 10 starts and are 23-16 against their AL Central division rivals this season.

Twins have the White Sox’s number this season at 5-1 in six games played. They have also won their last five home games against Chicago and are for sure the more consistent team this season. Give me the Twins to win this home contest.

Prediction: Minnesota Twins

White Sox vs Twins Over/Under Predictions

The total has gone over in four out of the last five meetings between these two teams. The over is also 2-1 in their last three games played in Minnesota.

Chicago White Sox over/under predictions:

• Under is 4-1 in the White Sox’s last 5 overall.
• Under is 4-1 in the White Sox’s last 5 games against the American League.
• Under is 4-1 in the White Sox’s last five games against the American League Central.
• Under is 4-0 in the White Sox’s last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 4-1 in the White Sox’s last 5 games versus a right-handed starter.
• Under is 18-7-4 in the White Sox’s last 29 games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 20-8-5 in the White Sox’s last 33 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2-1 in the White Sox’s last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 3-0-1 in the White Sox’s last 4 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the White Sox’s last 6 versus a team with a winning record.
• Over is 6-2-1 in the White Sox’s last 9 Thursday games.
• Over is 7-3 in the White Sox’s last 10 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.

Minnesota Twins over/under predictions:

• Over is 5-1-1 in the Twins’ last 7 overall.
• Over is 5-1-1 in the Twins’ last 7 on grass.
• Over is 5-0-1 in the Twins’ last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
• Over is 4-0 in the Twins’ last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-0 in the Twins’ last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in the Twins’ last 6 home games with the total set at 11.0 or higher.
• Over is 4-1-1 in the Twins’ last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
• Over is 3-1-1 in the Twins’ last 5 against American League Central.
• Over is 5-0 in the Twins’ last five games against the American League.
• Over is 7-3-1 in the Twins’ last 11 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• Under is 8-2-1 in the Twins’ last 11 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
• Under is 5-1 in the Twins’ last 6 home games versus a team with a losing record.
• Under is 5-1 in the Twins’ last 6 home games opposite a team with a losing record.
• Under is 7-0 in the Twins’ last 7 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.

The total has gone under in seven out of Johnny Cueto’s last 10 starts. Despite his 3-4 mark, Cueto has kept the White Sox alive in the game in every start he’s made this season and has recorded 8 quality starts. However, the White Sox scored 9 or more runs in four of six games prior to their previous series and are averaging four runs per game over their last eight played.

Meanwhile, Gray allowed just seven runs in five total games but he conceded five runs in his most recent start against the Rangers last weekend. The Twins have scored five or more runs in six out of their last eight games played and the score has hit a total of nine runs in seven out of their last eight games played.

Furthermore, the bullpens have not been that good either. Chicago is 19th in reliever ERA at 4.00 while Minnesota is one rank better at 18th with their 3.92 ERA. The total isn’t too high and given how these teams have been scoring as of late, I expect the total to hit the over.

Prediction: Over 8.5