Who Will Be the #1 Overall Pick in the 2018 NBA Draft?

On June 21^st, 2018, the NBA will hold its annual draft at the Barclays Center in New York. The NBA’s 30 teams will take turns in selecting eligible players, mostly from the US colleges and including international players, in a predetermined draft order.

The draft order was finalized on May 15, 2018, in the 2018 NBA Draft Lottery. This year’s lottery will be the last to use the old weighted system that gave the bottom teams better odds to get the top three picks. The Phoenix Suns, who had the league’s worst record last season, won the draft lottery and will be picking first overall for the first time in the franchise’s history.

This year, a record of 236 underclassmen beat the April 22, 2018 deadline and declared their intention to enter the draft, with 181 of these coming from US colleges. At the end of the deadline, 100 of these players who initially thought of forgoing their college eligibility decided to return to college for another season.

The underclassmen are important to the 2018 NBA Draft because according to most mock drafts, nine of the top 10 picks are likely to be underclassmen (one is expected to be from the international ranks). Of these players, seven played just one season in college and are making the jump to the pro ranks after their freshman season.

Interestingly, the betting gods put up the odds for the player who will be selected first overall in the 2018 NBA Draft, and surprisingly (or not?), that race has been narrowed down to three named players, or so that’s what the oddsmakers think. So here are the odds according to BetOnline as of June 19, 2018:

• DeAndre Ayton -1500
• Luka Doncic +500
• Jaren Jackson +4000
• Other Player in the Field +1200

Let’s take a closer look at the oddsmakers’ picks:

DeAndre Ayton

There are plenty of reasons why the oddsmakers put Ayton on top of their draft list. One is the fact that the soon-to-be 20-year-old from Nassau in the Bahamas is associated with Phoenix. Ayton played college ball for the University of Arizona and was a star at Hillcrest Prep School in Phoenix. So while Ayton is from the Bahamas, he grew up in Phoenix, and it would be a dream come true if he was drafted by the Phoenix Suns with the top pick of the 2018 NBA Draft.

But his affinity to the city isn’t the main thing that’s going for Ayton. The kid is 7’1” with a wingspan of 7’5” and has limitless potential. The PAC 12 Player of the Year for 2018 averaged 20.1 points and 11.6 rebounds while shooting 61.2% from the field, including an eye-popping 34% from behind the three-point line (on limited attempts, though).

DeAndre Ayton ranked 6th overall in the entire nation in rebounds per game and 8th in total rebound percentage at 21.4. His player efficiency rating of 32.6 was the highest in the PAC 12 and second overall in the entire NCAA, just behind the 33.7 of Jock Landale of St. Mary’s (CA).

Ayton has been likened to some of the top young big men in the NBA, such as Karl-Anthony Towns of the Minnesota Timberwolves, Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Pelicans, and Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers. Being compared to those NBA unicorns means only one thing: that DeAndre Ayton is the NBA’s next unicorn.

As far as DeAndre Ayton is concerned, the kid may not be 20 years old yet, but his body is already NBA-ready. For his size, Ayton is exceptionally agile and surprisingly very quick. As a big man, he doesn’t only finish strong, but he can also play with finesse. Despite shooting three-pointers at a limited number of attempts, he showed uncanny accuracy, making 34% of his college three-pointers.

The drawback of Ayton’s game is his defense. Despite his imposing 7’5” wingspan, he wasn’t an elite shot-blocker in the college ranks, although he showed flashes of being one in some games. Because of his size, he will end up as a center in the NBA. To be a successful big man in the NBA, Ayton has got to develop his shot-blocking skills.

All things considered, however, Ayton’s upside is tremendous, and not many players coming out of college have an offensive game as polished as his. Scouts are confident that the shot-blocking will come in the NBA, and because of his potential, Ayton is considered as the #1 overall pick in many mock drafts.

Luka Doncic

Like DeAndre Ayton, Luka Doncic is only 19 years old. Unlike Ayton, Doncic doesn’t play for a US college team; he plays in Europe. In fact, he is currently the hottest player in the international market. And he hasn’t even turned 20 yet.

What Luka Doncic has accomplished as a teenager playing in Europe has never been done before. The 19-year-old Slovenian wonderkid became the youngest ever to play for Real Madrid in the Spanish ACB professional league. He made his pro debut at the age of 16 years, 2 months, and 2 days, becoming the third-youngest player in league history behind Ricky Rubio and Angel Rebolo.

On May 8, 2018, Doncic recorded his first career triple double. He posted a statline of 17 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists against Real Betis Energia Plus, becoming the youngest player in the history of the Liga ACB to post a triple double. But perhaps his crowning glory is leading Slovenia to the 2018 Euroleague title while capturing MVP honors both in the tournament proper and in the Final Four.

Doncic’s 16.03 points per game average in the 2018 Euroleague was the 4^th-best scoring average during the tournament. He also ranked 13th in assists and 11th in steals. Overall, Doncic finished the tournament with a player lndex rating of 711, the best in the tournament, thus enabling him to win the 2018 Euroleague MVP award.

Many draft experts consider him to be the best all-around player in the draft, and given that the majority of this year’s lottery picks will be underclassmen, Doncic is thought to be the most mature and the one who has a complete game already. His ability to deliver under pressure and especially in big games are evidences that he is destined for greatness.

Doncic is a natural point guard, given his ability to make the right plays and deliver the best passes. But because he can shoot the ball very well, Doncic can also play shooting guard. And since he is 6’8” with a wide body, he can also shift to the NBA small forward position seamlessly.

While DeAndre Ayton is on top of the mock drafts, Doncic has the best chance of stealing the tag of #1 overall pick from him. What Doncic has accomplished in Europe, given his age, hasn’t been done before. In fact, most scouts agree that he is the most complete player from Europe to enter the NBA Draft.

The Phoenix Suns recently hired Igor Kokoskov as their new head coach. Kokosov was the coach of the Slovenian National team, which won the 2018 Euroleague. Luka Doncic played for that squad. While there is no questioning Kokoskov’s credentials, there are other coaches who have a resume just as solid. But why hire Luka Doncic’s national team coach? Just a coincidence? Maybe. But perhaps maybe not, too.

Who Will Be Number One?

Michigan freshman Jaren Jackson is an intriguing pick because of his defensive prowess and freak athleticism. He is the only other player named in the oddsmakers list, although he is considered a longshot at +5000. The bookies, though, still have a better hope that another player will be chosen first overall, with the chances of that happening currently at +1200. The name that comes to mind here is 7-foot Mohamed Bamba and 6’11” Marvin Bagley III.

The 6’11” Bagley has always been in the mix for the top-three picks with his Chris Bosh-like attributes. Meanwhile, the stock for the seven-foot Bamba rose after he measured a record 7’10” wingspan at the NBA Combine. Bamba also clocked a near-impossible 3.04 seconds for the ¾-court dash during a private workout for the Chicago Bulls. So given that he is longer than Rudy Gobert and faster than both Russell Westbrook and John Wall, Bamba is a name to watch on draft night.

But if all goes as planned, it’s DeAndre Ayton who is going to be picked first overall by the Phoenix Suns. The Suns have never had a dominant big man in their franchise history, and Ayton looks to be the guy who leads the Suns back to prominence. Having said everything, we’re picking DeAndre Ayton to become the #1 overall pick of the 2018 NBA Draft.