The 2018/19 version of the UEFA Champion’s League has been actioned packed so far. Defending champions Real Madrid made light work of their group to progress to the knockout stages in a bid to win their fourth title in a row. With the final set to go down in Madrid in May, “Los Blancos” will be hopeful of moving one step closer to equaling the club’s record of five consecutive European Cup triumphs set in the 1950s.
Of course, if they are to achieve such a feat they will need to do it without the talismanic Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese legend, Madrid’s highest goal scorer in history, sensationally moved to Juventus in the summer and will be hoping that the Turin-based club can get their hands on their first Champions League title since 1995/96. Even with the competition so high, Juventus will fancy their chances.
With the favorites, Manchester City, and second favorites Barcelona looking the strongest of the bunch, however, winning the trophy will be some achievement. Even the Neymar-led Paris Saint-Germain and last season’s runners-up, Liverpool, struggled to progress, just about creeping through in the final matchday of the group stages. With Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, a potentially rejuvenated Manchester United, in addition to a few other clubs all in with a shout, anything can happen.
With that said, from a betting perspective, there are some interesting prices currently being offered. Curiously, Manchester City are the clear favorites to win the trophy, despite never doing so in their history. Additionally, there are some attractive odds for teams that have a better pedigree than City in the tournament.
As you can see from the odds above, courtesy of BetOnline.Ag, EPL champions, Manchester City, heads the pack at +300. Pep Guardiola’s men were the standout club in all European domestic leagues last season, breaking the 100-point barrier for the first time in the history of the top flight. With key players like Sergio Aguero, Kevin De Bruyne, and David Silva, the team is not short on attacking talent and are strong all around the pitch.
The second favorites for the UCL title this season are Spanish giants, Barcelona. Guardiola’s former team are currently top of the Primera Liga in Spain, with the all-time league-leading goal scorer, Lionel Messi, currently top of the goals and assists charts. The Spanish champions have won the Champions League 3 times in the past 10 seasons and look strong enough to win their fourth this season.
Elsewhere, Italian champions Juventus look good at +600. As previously mentioned, the club now has Cristiano Ronaldo leading their front line and can push for another appearance in the final, at very least, given that they have appeared in two of the last four. Germany’s Bayern Munich are always a good bet and come with decent odds of +1200, while Paris St Germain at +700 to win the cup is something to keep in mind.
Perhaps the biggest surprise of the bunch here is Real Madrid, priced at am exceptional +1200. Having won the last three Champions League trophies – and with the final set to go down in Madrid this year – these odds seem heavily influenced by the loss of Ronaldo, for the most part. That said, the team is still strong and will fancy their chances of landing their fourth in a row.
As you might be able to gather, the motivating factor for bookmakers when compiling the odds is how each team has performed in the league. City, Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich, and Paris Saint-Germain are the champions of their respective leagues. There is another argument that the order of these respective champions indicates the order of how well each team performed throughout last season in their leagues. Put simply, City performed the best out of all of the champions while PSG performed the worst.
There is another metric at play here, however, and that is the strength of each of the individual leagues. Manchester City did not just smash practically everyone that got in their way, but they won the most competitive league of the 2017/18 season. With Ronaldo still present and buoying Real Madrid, the Primera Liga was the second best league in Europe, and so on.
One of the more interesting things from a betting perspective is to analyze how each team is performing this season in their domestic leagues. Man City, for example, has suffered a few key injuries and have fallen from the top of the table to be replaced by the impressive Liverpool. A team with aspirations of winning their domestic leagues as well as the Champions League will be stretched as a result, so keep this in mind when choosing who to back.
While the bookmakers rarely get it wrong, they are not always on the money when it comes to choosing the favorites to win the Champions League. While the odds are short at the top, there are a few value bets I have identified here that I believe could be worth looking at.
If you have an eye for a dark horse or value, good for you. While this illustrious competition has rarely been won by an outsider, Porto, Marseille, and Ajax are reminders that it can happen. Aside from that, some of the stronger teams can be picked at pretty good prices and this is where any shrewd soccer betting enthusiast should be aiming their attention!
OK, while the team isn’t what they were, I still can’t get my head around just how the winners of the last three titles can be priced at +1200. I understand the reasoning behind why the odds are so high, and it goes a little something like this:
All of the above points considered, this is a team that still has players like Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, Toni Kroos, Marcelo, and Karim Benzema. There is good depth and these players can really turn it on at any time.
More than this, the fact that they are not performing well in the league might be a blessing in disguise. If they are out of contention for the Primera Liga title, they will likely concentrate solely on the Champions League and trying to win their fourth in a row. Sounds appealing, right?
Get this: the tournament final is set to be played at the club’s Wanda Metropolitano Stadium. Diego Simeone’s men came very close to winning the UCL in 2015/16 against their cross-city rivals, Real, and currently sit in second place in the Primera Liga. Additionally, they have one of the strongest and most settled teams in Europe.
With players like Antoine Griezmann, Diego Godin, Diego Costa, Saul, Thomas Lemar, Koke, and Jan Oblak, there is true quality in the ranks of Madrid’s second-best team, historically. Atletico have also made it to the final of the tournament on two separate occasions in the past five seasons and will be gunning to make it third time lucky in front of home fans in their home stadium.
As far as a shot at one of the dark horses goes, this is one that cannot be ignored. Atletico is one of the best teams in Europe and – just like with Madrid – I am very surprised to see the team priced as considerable outsiders.
I like Tottenham. I respect their unity. They have a great coach in Mauricio Pochettino and some excellent players in Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen, Son Heung-min, Dele Alli, and Lucas Moura. Additionally, they are a team that works as a unit and have faith in one another. What’s more, there seems to be excellent morale at the club, despite – or probably as a result of – the lack of signings in the summer.
Additionally, this is a team that is resilient and does not know when they are beaten. This is a crucial quality for any club looking to achieve at the highest level of European soccer. Spurs may not have the pedigree of other English teams but they are gaining traction this season and improving as each game goes by. Spurs currently occupy 2nd in the EPL table and have scored 11 goals in their last two games.
The quality is there, the teamwork is superb, and in Pochettino, they have a highly regarded coach who can make the difference. The odds for Spurs to emerge as the winners of the UCL this season are, once again, too good to ignore. There is value in this bet as if they beat Borussia Dortmund in their next game, those odds will surely shrink. Definitely, one to think about.
While the red side of Manchester gets carried away with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s mini-revival, the opportunist bettor will surely be tempted to look at Manchester United at such great odds. With Jose Mourinho now gone and Paul Pogba almost immediately back to form… there is a sudden air of positivity surrounding the gates of Old Trafford. Solskjaer’s arrival is a boost to the sleeping giants, who have won their last two games with ease.
OK, those two games were fixtures that United would have been expected to win, regardless, but it is the freshness that the Norwegian has brought to the club that has some thinking United could win some silverware this season. The players are definitely happy to see the back of Mourinho and have accepted the interim boss with open arms. If he continues to inspire the team, they may want him to stay past the end of the season.
With this, of course, comes the desire to do enough on the pitch for the United boardroom to offer the former striker the full-time job. With United almost certainly out of contention for the league, they could focus on simply making the top 4 while mounting a very serious challenge for the Champions League. If anyone knows how to pull a Champions League victory out of the bag, it is surely Solskjaer (1999, anyone?).
Talk of a revival is premature and there will need to be more done to justify any notion that United are on the path to something big. Hence, the odds. This one is a gamble, but it really depends on if you’re a believer or a detractor. I would be inclined to suggest that they can beat Paris Saint-Germain in both legs of their Round of 16 clashes. After that, anything can happen, right?
You have to admire what Pep Guardiola has done at Manchester City. His brand of soccer was unstoppable in the EPL last season and the team simply ran away with the league, essentially putting The Citizens in pole position to defend the title. A few injuries have affected their flow this season but that can all change now that almost everyone is back to full fitness.
Most bookmakers have City marked as the team to beat this year in the Champions League. While City have never won the trophy, Guardiola has, three times (two as a coach and one as a player, all with Barcelona). A tactical master, Guardiola will be set on writing himself into the history books by way of bringing the first ever UCL title to The Etihad, but to say that it is a foregone conclusion would be a big mistake.
In addition to Guardiola’s coaching, City enjoys the luxury of having a pretty sizeable checkbook. The Catalan has signed some high-profile players to create his own brand of all-stars and has built the team around some of the best talents on the planet in the form of Aguero, Silva, De Bruyne, Sterling, Jesus, and more. There is no doubt that they have some quality players on the bench if needed, but there is no replacing the aforementioned trio of Aguero, Silva, and De Bruyne, as this season has demonstrated.
City should be confident of doing better in the UCL this season than they have ever done before. They have the quality to win the title, undoubtedly. While they are favorites, however, there will be additional pressure that will need to be managed if they are to succeed where no other City have. But factor in what looks like a very tough remaining 19 games in their title defense and you could argue that they have a massive job on their hands. Considerable enough to see the short odds as poor value, at least.
Well, when Lionel Messi is in your team, success is expected. Arguably the greatest player to have ever stepped foot on a soccer pitch, the Argentine superstar always plays his best for his club, much to the dismay of his compatriots in the South American country. As such, he is a player that strikes fear into the hearts of rival players, coaches, and fans, and will be desperate to make 2019 a great year, given the disappointment of Argentina’s lackluster showing at the World Cup.
Perhaps the biggest loss for Barcelona this season was the departure of club legend Andres Iniesta, however. A player like Iniesta comes around once in a generation and cannot be replaced. Barcelona did invest in Coutinho, Ousmane Dembele, and Arturo Vidal, and have a wealth of options that should see them continue to establish themselves as the team to beat in Europe.
Barcelona are exactly that: the team to beat, even with Guardiola’s work at City turning them into a formidable force. Luis Suarez is still an ever important cog in the wheel for the Catalans and there is significant strength in all areas of the team for the Spanish champions to launch an attack on this season’s trophy. With Real Madrid collecting the last three UCL titles – and with Ronaldo gone – Barca will expect that they are the team to keep the title in Spain.
Barcelona’s last Champions League triumph was all the way back in 2014/15. As such, it has been a while since they have been able to celebrate anything other than domestic success. In my opinion, they are the team that should win the trophy. Unlike City, Barcelona has a pedigree in the competition and are used to winning frequently in the tournament’s knockout rounds.
The Champions League has been resident in the Spanish capital of Madrid for the past three seasons. With Cristiano Ronaldo now plying his trade at Juventus, many believe that Los Blancos will not be able to do it for the fourth time in a row. One club that will be doing their very best to ensure that doesn’t happen is Real’s arch rivals, Barcelona. However, there will be many teams looking to get in the way of Messi and co.
Having looked through the odds for each and every team involved in the knockout stages, there is some genuine value in backing certain teams. Will Madrid show everyone who is boss again, or can their cross-city rivals, Atletico, upset the apple cart. Manchester United, revitalized under Solskjaer, might have something to say about that. The beauty of this tournament is that anything can happen.
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