OK, so it needs to be asked: what the hell is happening over at the Etihad Stadium in Manchester? If anyone has the answer, it is certainly not Manchester City’s esteemed coach, Pep Guardiola. The same applies to Liverpool’s Jurgen Klopp, although he will undoubtedly be delighted at City’s recent capitulation at the hands (or should that be feet?) of Crystal Palace and Leicester City.
The ongoing joke to soccer fans in England over the years is that Liverpool fans always believe it is ‘our year.’ Of course, the inevitable happens and the Merseyside-based outfit find a way to either mess things up for themselves or simply not put up a challenge worth mentioning. 2013/14 was as close as they have ever come to winning the Premier League trophy, only to lose and draw in two of their final games. One win would have seen them over the line.
The manager at the time, Brendan Rodgers, took most of the flak. However, club-captain and Liverpool legend, Steven Gerrard, in addition to a number of other key players, simply choked. Instead of bringing glory to the red part of Liverpool, Manchester City held their nerve and pipped their rivals to the title by two points. Agony ensued and the club went through a period of transition.
Rodgers, Gerrard, and Suarez are long gone. The first two are now rival managers at Celtic and Rangers, respectively, while the Uruguayan plies his trade alongside Messi at Barcelona today. In 2018, the new heroes are Jurgen Klopp, Mo Salah, and Virgil van Dijk. Can these three, in addition to other key players, do what no other Liverpool team has been able to do in the Premier League? The answer is yes.
Allow me to explain why.
The mood in Liverpool is very optimistic. The team is riding on the crest of a wave off the back of their superb form this season. Currently, Liverpool are top of the league with 51 points, unbeaten in 19 games, and with an unbelievable 7 goals conceded, there is simply no stronger team in England. To make matters worse, Manchester City, the defending champions, have shot themselves in the foot recently.
The superb Andros Townsend pushed Crystal Palace to an incredible 3-2 victory at the Etihad on December 22. Then, just four days later, Leicester City beat the league favorites 2-1 at home. Pep Guardiola’s face at the end of both games said it all and the English press were delighted to have some easy headlines to put together around the Christmas period. Liverpool fans flooded online message boards with their delight, while City fans scratched their heads in disbelief.
While the hope around Liverpool is tangible, there is also a sense of caution. The Reds are renowned for their ability to get in the way of themselves and also looked a great bet for silverware last season, only to finish fourth in the league and runners-up in the Champion’s League. Even with the rapid and superbly-performing frontline of Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino, and Sadio Mane, the year was a letdown.
The pain of 2013/14 and, to a lesser extent, the disappointment of ending a promising season empty-handed in 2017/18 is bound to affect some. Not everyone will be willing to get excited about winning the league until the trophy is firmly in the hands of club captain Jordan Henderson. As a Liverpool fan in 2018, simply allowing yourself to do anything else, is just asking for trouble.
The more historically-minded of Liverpool fans will understand the importance of being on top of the league at the end of December. Over the span of the last ten EPL seasons, the team on top of the league at this point have gone on to win the league, on eight occasions. The two times when the 1st place team has not won the league when being on top at the Christmas period were Liverpool (in 2008/9 and 2013/14).
Naturally, the detractors will point to this one particular stat as a reason to worry. That can easily be countered with another statistic: this is Liverpool’s greatest start to a season in their history. Additionally, this team is not comprised of the same players as those that failed to capitalize on their first-place position at Christmas. Everything is different and this is why there is ample reason to be optimistic if you are a Liverpool fan.
While this bad omen will likely be discussed as the season progresses, right now, there is something a little more tangible to point out. While Liverpool’s defense has been tremendous this season, injuries to Joe Gomez and Joel Matip have weakened the team’s strength in depth. Both men are expected to return around the end of January but the team will definitely be hoping that everyone else in the backline stays healthy until then.
Of course, even if the worst happened, Liverpool could recruit reinforcements in January’s transfer window. Losing van Dijk for an extended period of time would obviously be catastrophic but at least there would be a chance to bring in new talent in any other circumstance.
Everything is shaping up very nicely for Liverpool. The team is unbeaten and have the best defensive record in the league. They also have the second-best goalscoring record, which is an incredibly attractive position to be in. With City having dropped 9 points by way of three losses in close proximity, there is reason to believe that they have buckled under the pressure of Liverpool’s success.
The Anfield-based outfit will have a tough test in the form of Arsenal on December 29, but it is the next fixture on the list that will be the most enticing to fans. On January 3, Liverpool head to The Etihad to play Man City in what is the most important fixture of the year. A win for The Reds, especially if they can beat Arsenal 5 days before, will put them in an incredibly strong position.
Pundits and observers will be looking very closely at this game. For Guardiola and co., a loss would represent submission. Yes, there is plenty of time to go in the season, even with a loss for The Citizens, but compensating for a 10-point deficit is going to be incredibly unlikely against a team that has not lost. That is, of course, Liverpool are still unbeaten following the Arsenal fixture.
If City have indeed cracked under the pressure of Liverpool’s assault, then they will find it very difficult to dispatch them, even at home. Guardiola will remind his players that it will be a case of do or die here, as a win for Liverpool will set them up for the title. Except, that is not exactly true, is it. Until now we have almost discussed this league as being a two-horse race between Liverpool and Man City, but what about Tottenham Hotspur?
Tottenham are currently second in the league. Having played 19 games, they have 15 wins and 4 losses. To ignore them would be to both Liverpool and Manchester City’s peril, given that the team is showing great signs of coming together even tighter and stronger than they had been until now. Mauricio Pochettino is keeping the pressure off but will certainly be eyeing the crown come to the end of the season.
A 6-2 thrashing of Everton was followed up with a 5-0 annihilation of Bournemouth, taking them to second in the league at City’s expense. As such, Spurs are now being backed in some quarters as genuine challengers for the league. They are on a run of 6 games unbeaten and even managed to progress to the UEFA Champion’s League, against all odds, earlier this month.
Form is everything in soccer and this team appears to have found themselves amidst an exceptional purple patch. Given that the team has been the source of ridicule this season for their zero activity in the transfer market and the protracted availability of their new stadium, it is impressive to see them band together so well. All of the big names are performing and there is a genuine sense of unity that seems to be propelling them in the right direction.
In the age of soccer players being chopped and changed every season, stars like Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen, Dele Ali, Son Heung-min, and more know each other inside out. The team can recruit reinforcements in January if they wish, which will also take some pressure off should one of the big boys of the team suffer injury.
It is hard to tell at this stage. Both Manchester City and Spurs are still within touching distance of The Reds, and that is the main thing. Spurs do have something that City don’t at this point, however, and that is an abundance of confidence. Against Bournemouth, it was as though every shot they had found its way in. With high confidence and the right luck, anything can happen and Spurs cannot be written off.
That being said, a win for City against Liverpool on December 3 will give them the confidence to make up ground. There is no way that Guardiola’s men are out of it at this point. Both City and Spurs will still very much fancy their chances, especially as the pressure is now on Liverpool.
Last season was all about the Salah, Firminio, Mane trio. Having scored 91 goals between them in all competitions in 2017-18, there were high hopes among fans that this feat could be repeated – or even bettered – this season. Instead, things have been a little quieter in the front line. Salah, the club’s best performer last season, has 12 goals and 6 assists, which is not terrible but certainly not as good. Mane has 7 goals while Firminio has just 4.
Given that Liverpool have scored 43 goals this season, which is 8 behind top scorers Man City, there is no need to panic. The team’s dynamics and overall strategy has changed from being heavily dependent on attack to being a lot more well-rounded. Defensively, they have been excellent and a major part of their solidity at the back has been the work of the exceptionally talented van Dijk.
This season, the club’s midfield is the area that will prove to be the most important as time goes on. If there is an area of the team that is stacked, it is in midfield, with Xherdan Shaqiri, Fabinho, Naby Keita, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jordan Henderson, Adam Lallana, and James Milner offering a wealth of options that keep the team from being worked out by their rivals. Of course, compensating for injuries is also easier when there is so much stock in the factory to choose from.
The most important thing for this team is building a unit. Last season may have seen the team play incredibly attractive football, but they did finish a quarter of a century of points behind Man City on the final day of the season. Much like Tottenham, Liverpool is showing the benefits of finding the right blend and working towards a common goal as a team and not a collection of individuals.
While Klopp and his team are sitting pretty heading into the New Year, the next few months will be very challenging. Make no mistake, the red side of Liverpool has every reason to be optimistic, but it is is far from over. There are a few things that Salah and co. will need to be cautious about as we approach the second half of the 2018/19 season, such as:
When the Champions League kicks back off in January, Liverpool will be stretched. Should the club last to compete in the latter stages, this means more games, additional travel, and the likelihood of extra exposure to injuries and burnout as a result. Traveling to Spain, Italy, or Germany to play knockout soccer before playing a league game a few days later is not easy and this will be something that will have to be managed exceptionally well.
The same applies to FA Cup games. Liverpool does not have a great deal of strength in depth in defense or at the back, so players’ overexposure to too much game time could be a very bad thing for the team’s title aspirations. The same applies to any other team that has occupied the top of the table and played in the later stages of cup competitions over the years, however, and it is not impossible to manage.
City have suffered some key injuries this year. David Silva, Kevin de Bruyne, Sergio Aguero, Fernandinho, and Benjamin Mendy have been sidelined at some point. This has obviously affected the team and taken the sting out of their attack and ability to perform to the heights of last season. Conversely, Liverpool has been quite fortunate to keep most of their stars in the team, with just Matip and Gomez suffering injuries.
Given that City will have their key men fresh and up to scratch by next month, you can expect to see the team perform better and more consistently. Could this be something that affects Liverpool as the season goes on? Absolutely. A strong City are a team that no one wants to face, so Liverpool will need to be aware of this. However, given that they already have a draw against the champions this season – and are due to face them for the second time on January 3 – this means that things will be firmly in their hands.
Naturally, the loss of Allison, van Dijk, Salah, and a few others would be unthinkable. In all fairness, the first two are arguably the most important players in the team and fans would be devastated if they picked up an injury. While it was almost unthinkable to perform without Salah last year, this season has seen the team adopt a completely different way of playing, for the most part, that would not make the Egyptian’s loss as devastating.
For this reason, Liverpool fans can feel a little more comfortable. However, you simply do not know how things can pan out. The Reds have been very lucky to have gone through the season without major injuries, yet with 19 games still left, are not home and dry yet. Even the strongest teams out there need a bit of luck, and that is something Liverpool has had until now. Klopp will be hoping it stays that way.
I have been incredibly impressed by Liverpool this season. No one could have expected the transformation of their general game and that is something that other teams have found to be at their disadvantage this season. Not everything has been 100% from the Merseyside outfit, but they have done the simple things very well and performed with real verve that has been to Klopp’s credit.
With Virgil van Dijk having settled in and become the fulcrum of the team – and Alisson looking the complete opposite of former goalies Loris Karius and Simon Mignolet – the team has banished the tag of being weak at the back. 7 goals conceded in 19 games is the type of defensive record only champions can boast of. The team can probably afford to lose three times this season and still win the league, which sets them up nicely for the rest of the season.
With Mo Salah beginning to show signs of recapturing red-hot form, and Xherdan Shaqiri looking like one of the best signings of the season, Liverpool will be hoping that others in the team also step up and contribute. You can argue that we have not even seen the best of the team yet, which should make Liverpool fans even more optimistic. As it stands, there is no team in the league that can crack them, and this bodes very well for a team that thrives on confidence.
Make no mistake, Liverpool will be champions come May 2019. With a 29 year wait for a league title, it will be hard to deny the former giants the title. Man City and Tottenham will push them hard, no doubt, but Klopp’s men are not going to be caught.
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