Washington Wizards vs Milwaukee Bucks 01/03/2023 NBA Preview and Prediction

The Washington Wizards visit the Milwaukee Bucks at the BMO Bradley Center on Tuesday night.

The Wizards are on a roll right now with six wins in their last 7 games played, including their last five. Washington defeated this same Bucks team 118-95 last Sunday and will be looking to make it two in a row against Milwaukee. The Wizards are 17-21 SU on the season and are just 3 games behind the Southeast Division leaders Miami Heat.

Meanwhile, Milwaukee is struggling right now with five losses in their last seven games played. The Bucks snapped a four-game losing skid by beating the Timberwolves last week but they lost again to the Wizards the last time out. Milwaukee is 23-13 SU on the season and tied with the Cleveland Cavaliers for the best record in the Central Division.

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have moved up to 10th place in the Eastern Conference team standings after beating the Bucks last Sunday. Washington has lost just once in its last 7 games played and has won its last five outings.

Kristaps Porzingis leads the Wizards with 22.2 points per game on 47.8% field goal shooting. Monte Morris is the team leader in assists at 5.3 assists per game while also scoring 9.8 points per game. Bradley Beal is scoring 23.5 points per game but he has missed the team’s last three games with a hamstring injury.

Kyle Kuzma is also having a career season at 21.4 points per game and Rui Hachiumura adding 13.6 points per contest. The Wizards are putting up 112.1 points per game this year while also grabbing 43.9 rebounds per game and handing out 25.0 assists per outing.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are in third place in the latest Eastern Conference team standings and are just 2.5 games behind the top-seeded Boston Celtics. The Bucks are however struggling as of late with five losses in their last 7 games.

Milwaukee is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo who is scoring a career-high 32.1 points per game on 53.3% FG shooting. Jrue Holiday is contributing 18.9 points per game and a team-high 7.5 assists per contest. Antetokounmpo also leads the Bucks with 11.1 rebounds per game while Defensive Player of the Year candidate Brook Lopez is averaging 1.9 blocks per game this season.

Bobby Portis has been solid off the bench with 14.0 points and 10.1 rebounds per game this season and Lopez is putting up 14.6 points per game. Milwaukee is scoring 112.4 points per game while grabbing 48.8 boards per contest and issuing 24.4 assists per game.

Wizards vs Bucks SU Prediction

The Wizards are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games played against the Bucks. Washington is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games played in Milwaukee.

Washington Wizards SU trends:

• The Wizards are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games played.
• The Wizards are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games played on the road.
• The Wizards are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games played against the Central Division.
• The Wizards are 0-5 SU in their last 5 January games.

Milwaukee Bucks SU trends:

• The Bucks are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games played.
• The Bucks are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games played at home.
• The Bucks are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games played against the Southeast Division.
• The Bucks are 7-2 SU in their last 9 home games against the Eastern Conference.

The Wizards head to this game with five straight wins and six victories in their last seven contests. In their most recent appearance, Washington defeated Milwaukee 118-95 as the Bucks played without two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Without Giannis, the Washington frontcourt of Kristaps Porzingis and Rui Hachimura went to work with KP scoring 22 points and Hachimura contributing 26 points off the bench. Sunday’s game marked Hachimura’s 5th double-digit scoring game and his third 20+ game during that stretch.

Washington also played without Bradley Beal who missed his third consecutive game with a hamstring injury. Beal is listed as questionable on Tuesday while Antetokounmpo is probable to play for the Bucks. If Giannis cannot play again, then Bobby Portis must step up again. Portis had 19 points and 10 rebounds against the Wizards last Sunday and is tied with Antetokounmpo with 21 double-doubles on the season, 3rd most in the NBA.

You have to like Washington’s momentum heading to this contest. However, if Antetokounmpo returns on Tuesday, it will be another story. Antetokounmpo is third in the NBA in scoring at a career-high 32.1 points per game this season.

I think Giannis returns on Tuesday night and the Bucks get back on track and get back at the Wizards. Give me the Bucks to win at home.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -140

Wizards vs Bucks ATS Prediction

The Wizards are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games played against the Bucks. Washington is also 2-4 AT in their last 6 games played in Milwaukee.

Washington Wizards ATS trends:

• The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
• The Wizards are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
• The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win.
• The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Wizards are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight-up win.
• The Wizards are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• The Wizards are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a straight-up win of more than 10 points.
• The Wizards are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The Wizards are 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• The Wizards are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Wizards are 7-23 ATS in their last 30 Tuesday games.

Milwaukee Bucks ATS trends:

• The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
• The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
• The Bucks are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 Tuesday games.
• The Bucks are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
• The Bucks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.

These two teams played last Sunday and the Wizards blew out the short-handed Bucks in that game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable for Tuesday’s game and if the Greek Freak returns, this one is an easy pick to make as the Wizards don’t have a defensive player who can contain him. Also listed as probable is guard Jrue Holiday although Khris Middleton is still out with a knee injury.

If the Bucks get Giannis and Jrue back on Tuesday, then the Bucks are in good shape here. If not, look for the Wizards to hold their own and possibly steal another one from the Bucks. Porzingis and Hachimua are going to contest shots and the Wizards have a top-half defense The Bucks are just 18th in scoring this season.

The spread, however, has gone down from +8.5 to +2.5 for Washington. If the odds were at 8.5 points, I would take a stab at the Wizards. However, at less than three points, I think the Bucks can win this game and cover the minimal spread.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks -2.5

Wizards vs Bucks Over/Under Prediction

The total has gone under in each of the last four games played between these two teams. The under is 6-3 in the last 9 games played in Milwaukee.

Washington Wizards over/under odds:

• The under is 7-2 in the Wizards’ last 9 overall.
• The under is 7-0 in the Wizards’ last 7 road games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Wizards’ last 4 games playing on 1 day’s rest.
• The under is 4-0 in the Wizards’ last 4 road games versus a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
• The under is 5-0 in the Wizards’ last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
• The under is 7-2 in the Wizards’ last 9 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 6-2 in the Wizards’ last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The under is 5-2-1 in the Wizards’ last 8 games following an ATS win.
• The over is 8-3 in the Wizards’ last 11 versus a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The over is 46-19-1 in the Wizards’ last 66 games against a team with a winning % above .600.

Milwaukee Bucks over/under trends:

• The over is 5-2 in the Bucks’ last 7 overall.
• The over is 8-2 in the Bucks’ last 10 home games.
• The over is 5-1 in the Bucks’ last 6 home games against a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
• The over is 6-2 in the Bucks’ last 8 Tuesday games.
• The over is 5-2 in the Bucks’ last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
• The over is 6-2 in the Bucks’ last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
• The over is 8-3 in the Bucks’ last 11 games following an ATS loss.
• The under is 10-4 in the Bucks’ last 14 games following a double-digit loss at home
• The under is 4-0 in the Bucks’ last 4 games against a team with a losing straight-up record.

The Bucks are ranked 15th in the league in pace while the Wizards are even slower at 19th in that statistical department. Given their style, neither team will look to push the ball faster and will take time before taking their shots. This will limit the number of shots taken by both sides.

Milwaukee is 6th in the NBA in scoring defense while the Wizards are 14th. Both these teams are in the upper half of the league as far as scoring defense is concerned so we will see good defense played by both sides. The Bucks are also just 18th in scoring while the Wizards are even worse at 18th.

Khris Middleton is still out with a knee injury while both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are listed as probable. Even if these two play, they may be playing with a minutes restriction.

These teams have combined to score an average of 207.0 points per game in their last three head-to-head meetings. Give me these teams to hit the under.

Prediction: Under 220.5