Blake Daniels, May 23, 2022

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The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants open a three-game set at Oracle Park on Monday night.

The Mets are currently 28-15 on the season and top of the National League East team standings. New York is eight games ahead of the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies in the divisional standings. The Mets have won just half of their last 10 games played.

The Giants are third in the National League West with their 22-18 record. They are five games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the divisional standings and are just 4-6 in their last 10 games played including losses in each of their last four games played.

New York and San Francisco have played in a total of four games so far this season and the Mets led the season series 3-1.

New York Mets

The Mets are off to a good start and right now, they have won three out of their last four games played and are coming off a 2-1 series win against the Colorado Rockies. The Mets won their most recent game 2-0 with Taijuan Walker and three relievers combined for a six-hitter.

Left-hander David Peterson will open on top of the mound for the Mets. Peterson is 1-0 in three starts with an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of 1.11 in 19 innings pitched so far this season. The 26-year-old has conceded five runs on 13 hits with 16 walks and 8 strikeouts in limited action for the Mets.

New York has won in each of his last three starts including a 5-4 victory over the Braves earlier this month. Peterson has allowed only five runs including only one home run in his last four starts with the Mets going 3-1 during that stretch.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants lost to the San Diego Padres 10-1 last Sunday to suffer a 3-0 sweep at the hands of the Padres. San Francisco has lost four straight games and five out of their last seven games. The Giants have one of the best offenses in the majors at close to five runs per game scored and they are 9th overall with 43 home runs.

Alex Cobb will open on top of the hill for San Francisco on Monday. Cobb is 3-1 in six starts this season and has an ERA of 5.61 and a WHIP of 1.52. In 25.2 innings pitched this season, Cobb has surrendered 21 runs on 30 hits including 2 home runs with nine walks and 32 strikeouts.

San Francisco is just 2-3 in Cobb’s last five starts and he’s allowed 19 runs during that stretch. Also, Cobb has not pitched more than 5.1 innings in those five games started. In his most recent start, he allowed 7 runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings pitched.

Who Wins?

Head to head, the Mets have won three out of the last four meetings between these two teams. The Mets are, however, just 2-5 in their last seven meetings in Francisco.

The Mets are:

• 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
• 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
• 4-1 in their last 5 games on grass.
• 4-1 in their last 5 road games versus a team with a winning record.
• 21-6 in their last 27 games against a right-handed starter.
• 10-3 in their last 13 games versus a team with a winning record.
• 20-6 in their last 26 games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• 6-2 in their last 8 games against the National League.
• 8-3 in their last 11 games versus teams from the National League West.
• 8-3 in their last 11 road games against a right-handed starter.
• 11-1 in their last 12 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 9-2 in their last 11 Game 1s of a series.
• 7-3 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• 30-67 in their last 97 games as a road underdog.
• 16-36 in their last 52 games as an underdog.
• 4-10 in their last 14 games following a win.
• 1-4 in their last 5 after games allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 1-6 in their last seven Monday games.

The Giants are:

• 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• 16-5 in their last 21 Monday games.
• 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
• 44-18 in their last 62 Game 1s of a series.
• 54-23 in their last 77 games as a favorite.
• 48-22 in their last 70 games after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• 29-14 in their last 43 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 61-30 in their last 91 games as a home favorite.
• 2-8 in their last 10 games following a loss.
• 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
• 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• 1-6 in their last 7 games when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 1-6 in their last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• 0-4 in their last 4 overall.
• 0-4 in their last 4 games on grass.
• 0-4 in their last 4 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Giants own one of the best offenses in baseball. However, they have struggled in their recent games, have scored less than four runs per game in their previous three games, and are just 1-4 in their last five games played.

San Francisco is also sending Alex Cobb to the mound. Cobb has struggled recently as he’s given up a total of 15 runs in his last four starts. He should find trouble against a Mets lineup that has found plenty of success against right-handed starters at 23-7 so far this season.

The Mets’ offense has been clicking as of late, producing five or more runs in three out of their last four games while going 3-1 during that stretch. New York will also be sending a starter in Peterson who has done a good job as of late for his team, giving up only five runs in four starts. Also, the Giants are just 5-4 against left-handed starters this season so they should have trouble against Peterson.

New York is 15-7 on the road and is baseball’s third-most profitable team at $537 this season. The Mets have also lost just thrice in their last 13 games played against an opponent with a winning record. The Giants are 11-10 at home and are the 9th least profitable team in baseball at -$284. They have only one win in their last five games played. The value is on the Mets here.

Prediction: New York Mets

Mets vs Giants Over/Under Betting

The under is 6-2-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these two teams. The total has gone under in seven out of their last 10 games played in San Francisco.

New York Mets over/under odds:

• Under is 6-2 in the Mets’ last 8 road games.
• Under is 4-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
• Under is 3-1-1 in the Mets’ last 5 games against an opponent from National League West.
• Under is 14-5-1 in the Mets’ last 20 games when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
• Under is 14-5-2 in the Mets’ last 21 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Under is 14-6-2 in the Mets’ last 22 games as a road underdog.
• Under is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 Game 1s of a series.
• Under is 7-1 in Mets’ last 8 road games with the total set at 7.0 or higher.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 games with the total set at 8.5 or lower.
• Over is 4-0 in the Mets’ last 4 road games with the total set at 8.5 or lower.
• Over is 4-1-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 5-2 in the Mets’ last 7 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

San Francisco Giants over/under odds:

• Over is 9-3 in the Giants’ last 12 overall.
• Over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 5-0 in the Giants’ last 5 during game 1 of a series.
• Over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 vs. National League East.
• Over is 4-0 in the Giants’ last 4 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 6-1 in the Giants’ last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in the Giants’ last 7 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
• Over is 6-1 in the Giants’ last 7 home games with the total set at 6.5 or lower.
• Over is 6-1 in the Giants’ last 7 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 5-1 in the Giants’ last 6 games following a loss.
• Over is 5-1 in the Giants’ last 6 games as a home favorite.
• Over is 5-1 in the Giants’ last 6 home games.
• Over is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
• Over is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
• Over is 4-1 in the Giants’ last 5 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
• Over is 9-3 in the Giants’ last 12 games as a favorite.
• Over is 9-3 in the Giants’ last 12 on grass.
• Under is 5-2 in the Giants’ last 7 games with the total set at 7.0 or higher.
• Under is 5-2-2 in the Giants’ last 9 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

Peterson has pitched well this season but the lefty had an ERA of 5.54 in 15 starts last season. Meanwhile, Peterson has seen five out of his six starts this season go over the total. Having said those, there’s a good chance that neither pitcher lasts more than six innings here and that means that their bullpens would be put into action early. With both teams having average bullpens, both offenses will get many scoring chances here which I think they will capitalize on.

San Francisco is averaging 5.225 runs per game at home while the Mets are scoring an average of 4.57 runs per game on the road. Given the pitchers starting for both teams and the quality of their bullpen, there’s a good chance this game hits over 7.5 runs.

Prediction: Over 7.5