New York Yankees vs Seattle Mariners 07/06/2021 MLB Odds, Preview, and Picks

The New York Yankees will look to get things going in what has been a disappointing season. The Yankees are coming off a series loss to their rivals Mets but avoided the broom with a 4-2 win on Sunday night to move one game above the .500 mark at 42-21 on the season. Meanwhile, the Mariners have fared better than what most expected. At 45-40, they are picked up another series win last weekend by winning their rubber match against the Rangers 4-1.

New York leads the head-to-head series 16-4 since 2016 and the Yankees have won six out of the last seven meetings between these two teams. However, this marks the first meeting between these two teams since 2019.

New York Yankees

The Yankees avoided getting swept by their rivals Mets in the previous series but they are just 3-7 in their last 10 games played and only one game above the .500 mark at the midway point of the season. They entered Monday 10 games behind the Red Sox for the AL East race and 5.5 games behind the A’s for the second wildcard spot in the American League.

Jameson Taillon will start for the Yankees in Game 1. Tallion is 3-4 in 15 starts with an ERA of 5.43 and a WHIP of 1.364. He has given up 21 walks and struck out 73 batters in 69.2 innings of pitch work this season. Tallion got the win in his last outing, allowing five runs on nine hits with one walk and four strikeouts in 5.1 innings of work.

Outfielder Clint Frazier was placed in the IL last week after suffering from vertigo symptoms while centerfielder Aaron Hicks is out for the season after undergoing wrist surgery. The Yankees are also without starting pitcher Corey Kluber who has a right rotator cuff injury while Luis Severino is out after Tommy John and a strained groin.

Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners are one of the teams that have exceeded preseason expectations. At five games over the .500 mark, Seattle has won 14 out of its last 19 games heading to this game and they entered Monday third in the AL West, seven games behind the leaders Houston Astros. However, the Mariners are just 3.5 games behind the Oakland A’s for the second wildcard spot in the AL.

Justus Sheffield will open on top of the mound for the Mariners. Sheffield has started in 14 games this season and has posted a record of 5-7 with an ERA of 5.88 and a WHIP of 1.708. In 72 innings of work, he has struck out 57 hitters while allowing 32 walks. He did not get the decision in his most recent start, throwing for four innings while allowing four runs on seven hits with three walks and three strikeouts.

AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis will be out until late in the season with a torn meniscus. First baseman Evan White is also out with a hip flexor sprain while starting pitchers James Paxton, Nick Margevicius, and Ljay Newsome are all out for the season with respective injuries.

Who Wins?

New York is 2-7 SU in their last nine games played. The Yankees are 3-6 in their last nine games played on the road, 2-5 in their last seven games after an off-day, 2-6 in their last eight games as betting favorites, 2-7 in their last nine games played on grass, and 1-5 in their last six games against an opponent with a winning record.

Seattle is 4-1 SU in their last five games played. The Mariners are 7-2 SU in their last nine games played at home, 4-0 in their last four home games against an opponent with a winning record, 6-1 in their last seven games against the American League East, 5-1 in their last six Game 1s of a series, and 9-2 overall in their last 11 games against an opponent with a winning record.

Seattle has its work cut out for them in this game as Sheffield has struggled on the mound this season. However, Taillon has not been able to recapture his pre-injury form and has allowed a lot of hard contacts this season including a 10% barrel rate.

Seattle’s lineup won’t be an easy outing with the likes of Fraley, Torrens, and J.P. Crawford giving unexpectedly high production. Meanwhile, the New York offense has produced good metrics but has struggled to score runs because of its tendency to hit ground balls, not to mention their poor baserunning which is the worst in the majors.

Nobody expected Seattle to have a better record than the Yankees at this stage of the season. But the Mariners have been playing solid all-around baseball and their streak of series wins have come against tough competition.

I think there’s a lot of value on the home team with plus money here. Give me the Mariners to beat the Yankees.

Prediction: Mariners +139

Over/Under Betting

The total has gone over in four out of the last five games played by the Yankees. The over is 13-7 in their last 20 games against the American League, 5-0 in their last five Tuesday games, 5-0 in their last five games after an off-day, 7-2 in their last nine games against a left-handed starter, and 6-2 in their last eight games against an opponent with a winning record.

The total has gone over in six out of the Mariners’ last eight games played. The over is 10-4 in their last 14 July games, 6-2 in their last eight games against the American League, 6-2 in their last eight games after an off-day, 11-5 after allowing two or more runs in their previous game, and 4-1 in their last five Games 1s of a series.

The offensive stats will say that the under is the best to make here. However, poor as their offenses have been, we have two struggling pitchers here who are far from being unlucky.
Taillon’s 4.75 FIP is a turnoff while Sheffield lacks the ability to strike out opposing batters and gives up too many walks.

New York’s bullpen used to be its balancing act but even the trustworthy Chapman has not been unhittable as of late, with an ERA of over 22 over the last three weeks.

Given how well they are playing, Seattle should be able to score easily here and the Yankees’ lineup should be good enough to help them push the total to more than 9 runs.

Prediction: Over 9